Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autumn， but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover.

　　在最新一次《华尔街日报》调查中，经济学家预计经济会在秋天结束衰退，但认为经济完全恢复还需数年时间。

　　On average， the 52 economists who participated in the wurvey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract at a seasonally adjusted annalized peace in the current quarter， compared with the drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter， with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010.

　　平均而言，参与调查的52位经济学家预计衰退将于8月份结束。他们预计，经季节因素调整，第二季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）折合成年率将收缩，今年第一季度为下降。他们预计，经济会在第三季度恢复缓慢增长，明年上半年增速会超过2%.

　　The survey was conducted before the Commerce Department's report this week that retail sales fell in April from the previous month， which left some economists questioning whether consumer spending is ready to rebound. Initial unemployment claims released Thursday brought more gloomy news： Seasonally adjusted claims in the week ended May 9 increased 32，000 to 637，000 from a revised 605，000 in the preceding week. Most of the losses can be chalked up to Chrysler LLC's 27，000 layoffs following its April 30 bankruptcy filing.

　　在此次调查之后，美国商务部本周公布4月份零售额较上月下滑；这一数据促使一些经济学家怀疑消费者支出是否已经做好回升准备。周四公布的首次申请失业救济人数带来了更多黯淡消息：经季节因素调整，5月9日当周首次申请失业救济人数增加3.2万人，至63.7万人；此前一周数据修正后为60.5万人。克莱斯勒在4月30日申请破产后宣布裁员2.7万人是上周首次申请失业救济人数增加的主要原因。

　　Separately， the April producer price index， which gauges prices at the wholesale level， rose driven by growth in food prices. The core price index， which excludes food and energy， was up .

　　此外，4月份生产者价格指数（PPI）上升，主要受食品价格上涨推动。不包括食品和能源的核心价格指数上涨。

　　Even before the new data were released， economists were expecting a major pullback in consumption. Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents saidthe recent increase in the US saving rate is the beginning of a major behavioral shift.

　　即便在新数据公布前，经济学家也预见到了消费的显著收缩。将近四分之三的调查受访者表示，近期美国储蓄率的上升标志着一个重大消费行为转变的开始。

　　A consumer retrenchment is one factor that is likely to make any recovery a long slog. The economists on average expect the unemployment rate to climb to by the end of the year， with two million more jobs lost over the next 12 months， even as growth returns to the economy.

　　消费者节俭之风是导致经济复苏可能漫长艰难的一个因素。经济学家平均预计，今年年底前失业率会攀升至，未来12个月还会失去200万个工作岗位，即便经济重新开始增长。

　　the depth of the downturn means it will take years to eat up the slack created by the recession. To gain back ground lost and being down unemplyment， the economy has to grow by more than its potential rate. Nearly half of the economists said it will take three to four years to close the output gap， while more than a quarter say it will take five to six years.

　　经济下滑的严重程度意味着，要消除衰退带来的影响还需要数年时间。为了夺回失地，压低失业率，经济就必须以超出潜力的水平增长。将近半数的经济学家表示，消除产出缺口还需要三到四年时间；而超过四分之一的经济学家认为，这个过程需要五到六年时间。

　　'We're going through a transition in the economy back to a more normal share of consumer spending relative to GDP，' said Pual Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp. 'This is a very deep and defining recession that is going to lead to a transformed US economy， and there transformations don't take place overnight.'

　　北方信托公司的卡斯里尔说，我们将经历经济的一个过渡期，消费支出相对于GDP的比例将重新回到一个更为正常的水平。这是一次非常严重而关键性的衰退，会推动美国经济进行转型，而这些转型不会一蹴而就。

　　The survey respondents were more positive about the financial sector. A third of the economists said the recently completed bank stress tests were a well-done and very constructive process， while half said they were helpful even if they understand risks. Last week， the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department released the results of tests to gauge how well banks' balance sheets would withstand the recession. Meanwhile， more than three-quarters said President Barack Obama's administration won't have to go back to Congress for more money to aid banks.

　　调查受访者对金融行业较为乐观。三分之一的经济学家表示，近期完成的压力测试做的不错，是项非常有建设性的工作；不过有半数受访者说，即便测试低估了风险，也会有所帮助。美国联邦储备委员会和财政部上周公布了压力测试结果，评估银行的资产负债状况能否抵御经济衰退。与此同时，超过四分之三的人表示，奥巴马政府不需要再次向国会寻求资金救助银行。

　　Half the respondents said that fiscal and montary stimulus has provided the basis for a sustainable receovery. Twenty-seven percent said it has boosted the economy， but they had doubts about sustainability. 'The Fed has the big guns and has effectively averted a depression or a much more severe recession.'said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

　　半数受访者说，政府的财政和货币刺激措施已经为经济持续复苏奠定了基础。有27%的人说，这些措施已经给经济带来了提振，但他们怀疑成效能否持久。Mesirow Financial的斯旺克表示，美联储起了重大作用，它已经有效避免了经济陷入萧条或是一场非常严重的衰退。

　　The role of the Fed in stablizing the market has boosted the outlook for Chairman Ben Bernanke. On avrage， the economists say there is a 72% chance that Mr. Obama will reappoint the Fed chairman in 2010. 'If there's a hero to this piece， it's Ben Bernanke，' Mr. Kasriel said.

　　美联储在稳定市场方面发挥的作用也给该机构主席伯南克的前景带来了帮助。平均而言，经济学家认为伯南克有72%的可能性在2010年获得连任。卡斯里尔说，如果这其中有个英雄的话，那就是伯南克。