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市场的通货再膨胀预期减弱(Reflation in Retreat)
道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数今年高于去年底水平的时间仅有一天，它现在又在忙着掉头下行。
或许是八大工业国（G8）财政部长把本职工作干得太好了。虽然他们在日前结束的会议上没能达成什么重要协议，但大多都对全球经济将迅速复苏的乐观情绪嗤之以鼻。亚洲和欧洲的股市闻风下跌，美国股市也步了它们的后尘。
虽然这些财政部长们几乎未就汇率问题表态，但美元汇率还是出现了上扬。在经济增长乏力的当今世界，美国似乎仍然是最安全的投资避风港。美元上扬打击了大宗商品价格，长期债券收益率也出现了下跌。换句话说，通货再膨胀交易（译者注：押注全球经济将复苏，从而推高利率水平和大宗商品价格）的策略正在失宠，这实现了八大工业国财政部长们的另一个愿望，至少暂时是这样。
牛市的出现需要有更多坚实的经济增长迹象才行，更不要说通货再膨胀局面的出现了。仅靠经济增长的"绿芽"是不足以推动股市上涨的。周一公布的数据显示，纽约州6月份的制造业状况相当疲弱，这自然无助于股市上扬。
The Dow Jones Industrial Average enjoyed very little time in positive territory for 2009 （a day） and is now busy working to the downside.
Perhaps the G8 finance ministers did their job too well. While not agreeing on a great deal, most ministers pooh-poohed enthusiasm for a quick global economic recovery. Stocks in Asia and Europe took the hint and the U.S. has followed.
While the finance chiefs said almost nothing about currencies, the dollar shot higher. In a world of lackluster growth, it seems the U.S. remains the least bad place. A rising buck socked commodity prices and long-term bond yields have come down. In other words, the reflation trade is retreating, another wish of the finance ministers coming true, at least for now.
The bull case （not to mention the reflation case） requires more concrete indications of growth. Green shoots alone aren't enough to take stocks higher. This morning's Empire State survey, which came in fairly weak, didn't help matters.
责任编辑：vivien
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