Grain prices go the way of the oil price

　　谷物价格再现油价攀高之势

　　EVERY morning millions of Americans confront the latest trend in commodities markets at their kitchen table. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, rising prices for crops—dubbed "agflation"—has begun to drive up the cost of breakfast. The price of orange juice has risen by a quarter over the past year, eggs by a fifth and milk by roughly 5%. Breakfast-cereal makers, such as Kellogg's and General Mills, have also raised their prices. Underpinning these rises is a sharp increase in the prices of grains such as corn (maize) and wheat, both of which recently hit ten-year highs. Analysts are beginning to ask, as they have of oil and metals, whether higher prices are here to stay.

　　每天早晨，餐桌前的数百万美国人都要直面农产品市场的最新趋势。美国农业部称，农作物价格上涨（被称为“农产品通胀（agflation）”已经开始引发早餐成本的升高。在过去一年里，橙汁价格上涨了25%，蛋价涨了20%，牛奶价格则涨了约5%，早餐谷类食品制造商如Kellogg's和General Mills也纷纷提价。导致这些产品价格上涨的原因是玉米和小麦等谷物价格的飙升，这两类谷物的价格近期均升至十年来最高水平。分析人士现已开始怀疑谷物价格是否会像石油和金属价格一样一路走高。

　　On the face of it, that is an odd question. After all, if the world runs short of corn or wheat, farmers can simply grow more, weather permitting. That is exactly what they have been doing. In the coming year, the International Grains Council, an industry group, estimates that global production of grains will reach a record of 1,660m tonnes, well above last year's figure of 1,569m. But demand for grain is growing even faster. The council reckons it will reach 1,680m tonnes this year. In three of the past four years, demand has exceeded supply.

　　从表面上看，发出这种疑问有悖常理。毕竟，即便全球玉米或小麦都消耗一空，农民们在气候条件允许的情况下还可再种植，而且事实也的确如此。据国际谷物委员会（一家行业团体）估计，全球谷物产量今年底将达到16.6亿吨的历史最高水平，大大超过去年的15.69亿吨。但是谷物需求增长速度更快，该委员会估计今年将达16.8亿吨，而在过去四年中有三年谷物都出现了供不应求。

　　The culprit is the growing use of grains to make biofuels, such as ethanol. Most grains are used as food either for people or for livestock. But the increase in human consumption has been slowing for decades as population growth moderates. Demand for animal feed, meanwhile, has grown steadily, as more people in booming countries such as China grow rich enough to afford meat.

　　供不应求的根本原因是谷物在生物燃料如乙醇制造方面的应用不断增多。大多数谷物一般都用作人类食品或者家畜饲料，但数十年来随着人口增长趋于缓和，人类谷物消耗量的增长已逐渐减缓。与此同时，由于在像中国这样的新兴国家中能吃得起肉的富人越来越多，动物饲料方面的需求也持续增长。

　　Demand for biofuel feedstocks, by contrast, is soaring. The amount of corn used to make ethanol in America has tripled since 2000; ethanol distilleries now consume a fifth of the country's corn crop. And America is only one of 41 countries where governments are encouraging the use of biofuels to reduce oil consumption.

　　不过相比之下，生物燃料原料需求的增长要更为迅猛。在美国，用于制造乙醇的玉米总量自2000年以来已经翻了两番，现在该国有1/5的玉米都为乙醇制造厂所消耗。而且，目前全球共有41个国家为降低石油消耗都鼓励使用生物燃料，美国不过是其中之一。

　　As a result, demand for grains has accelerated. During the 1990s, when oil was cheap and biofuels unheard of, demand grew by 1.2% a year, according to Goldman Sachs. But in recent years, it has increased by 1.4%, and over the next decade, Goldman projects, it will rise by 1.9% annually.

　　谷物需求的增长因此也就加快了。据高盛公司统计，上世纪90年代在石油很便宜且生物燃料尚未引起人们注意的情况下，谷物需求每年的增长幅度是1.2%，而近几年则达到1.4%。高盛公司预计今后十年谷物需求每年将增长1.9%。

　　Farmers are struggling to keep up. The Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist, projects that demand for corn, at least, will continue to exceed supply until at least 2009. Moreover, even to produce as much corn as they are now, farmers are growing less soya and wheat, and so pushing up the prices of those crops too. With all the main grains to feed poultry and livestock becoming more expensive, the cost of meat and eggs is rising, and so it goes on.

　　农民对此也是疲于应付。据《经济学家》姐妹刊物《经济学家情报》预测，至少在2009年以前，至少玉米将持续供不应求。此外，由于农民正减少大豆和小麦的种植，因此将来即使不降低玉米产量，此类农作物的价格也会不断上扬。随着喂养家禽和家畜的各种谷物越来越贵，肉蛋价格也正在并将继续上涨。

　　When demand was growing more slowly, farmers could meet it through gradual improvements in their yields. But to cope with today's boom, yields will have to rise much faster, or farmers will have to bring more land into production.

　　在过去，当需求增长趋缓时，农民可通过逐步增加产量来应对。但要应付当前的飞速增长，那就必须要么大大加快增产速度，要么让农民拿出更多的土地用于生产。

　　Both are possible. Greater adoption of genetically modified strains of corn and wheat, for example, could improve yields. But they are expensive and politically controversial. There is also quite a bit of fallow land to be sowed, especially in developing agricultural powers such as Brazil and Ukraine. But those countries are far from the biggest markets and their idle land tends to be found in areas with poor transport links. A strong price signal will be needed to overcome such obstacles and induce extra supplies.

　　这两种情况都有可能。比如说，加大玉米和小麦基因改造技术的应用可提高产量，但经改造的产品价格都比较昂贵，而且容易引发政治争议。休耕地也还有相当多，在发展中农业大国如巴西、乌克兰更是如此，但这些国家距离大型农产品市场都很远，而它们的闲置耕地往往又都位于交通落后地区，因此只有很明显的价格变化，才能促使这些地方增产。

　　But even if new land is planted, argues Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs, it will not necessarily reduce the cost of grains. Since high oil prices and generous government subsidies ensure that biofuels are profitable, any extra grain will be used to make more of the stuff. That will not dent the oil price, since the volumes remain tiny compared with global oil consumption. Instead, the price of biofuels has risen to that of petrol, and the price of corn and crude oil, the main feedstocks for the two, have converged. For grain prices to fall, Mr Currie argues, either governments must pull the plug on biofuels programmes, or the oil price must fall.

　　然而，高盛公司的杰弗里库里（Jeffrey Currie）认为，即使增加耕地，也不一定会降低谷物价格。由于油价高、政府补贴多使得生物燃料有利可图，因此增收的谷物都会被用于生产生物燃料原料。这并不会使油价下跌，因为石油总量相比全球石油消耗而言仍然很少。相反，生物燃料价格已经逼近石油价格水平，而作为两者的主要原料，玉米和原油的价格也已持平。库里认为，要想谷物价格下降，前提条件要么是政府限制生物燃料生产，要么是油价下跌。

　　Neither seems very likely in the near future. This week America's Congress is debating whether to double its targets for biofuel production. At the same time, the oil price rose to its highest level in ten months, thanks to a strike and other disruptions in Nigeria. The chaos in the Niger delta, it turns out, has a surprising amount to do with the price of eggs.

　　从短期来看，这两种情况似乎都不太可能发生。本周，美国国会将讨论是否将生物燃料产量指标再增加一倍。与此同时，由于尼日利亚发生罢工和动乱，石油价格也攀升至十个月来的最高水平。谁曾想到，尼日尔三角洲地区的动荡竟能引起蛋价上涨呢？！