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Mining companies, which posted record profits of more than $50 billion in 2010, are funneling cash into expanding their supplies of key raw materials. The expansion, though, is unlikely to be enough to meet robust demand and tame rising commodity prices.
为了增加关键原材料的供应,各大矿业公司纷纷注入资金。但增加的供应不太可能满足强劲的需求,也无法抑制不断上涨的大宗商品价格。2010年各大矿业公司报出了创纪录的超过500亿美元的利润水平。
Companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto PLC and Vale SA are boosting capital investment but running into various head winds, which are slowing their ability to greatly boost output of iron ore, coal and copper. As a result, prices of those commodities are expected to remain high, with some forecast to climb even higher over the next two years. The price of coal has risen 32% since late last year.
必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto PLC)和淡水河谷(Vale SA)等公司正在增加资本投入,但各种不利因素也降低了这些公司大大提高铁矿石、煤炭和铜的产出的能力。结果上述大宗商品的价格预计将停留在高位,一些人甚至预测未来两年价格还将涨至更高。自去年底以来煤炭的价格累计上涨了32%。
One issue shaping -- and limiting -- investment options is the rising wave of nationalism by countries, which have signaled an intent to impose high taxes or government requirements on the businesses.
极大影响和限制投资选择的是各国不断兴起的民族主义浪潮,具体表现为政府企图对各大企业征收重税或施加各种规定和要求。
Roger Agnelli, the CEO of Brazil's Vale, which generated $26.12 billion in cash from operations in 2010, is under pressure to step down by government officials who want the mining company to invest more heavily in Brazil. They would like to see more steel-making operations that could use iron ore and coal to make steel, rather than export those raw materials to steel plants in other parts of the world.
巴西淡水河谷的首席执行长阿涅利(Roger Agnelli)目前正处于辞职压力之下,因为政府官员希望该公司能加大在巴西的投资。淡水河谷2010年的营业现金收入共计261.2亿美元。政府官员希望看到巴西国内能有更多的钢铁厂利用铁矿石和煤炭炼钢,而不是将这些原材料出口到世界其它地区的钢铁厂。
Rio Tinto Chief Executive Tom Albanese says that miners have cash available but that progress in developing or expanding new mines is slowed by delays in government permits, escalating costs for labor and machinery, and limited ports and railways. Companies have already developed the most accessible reserves and now have to dig deeper, which adds costs. They also have to extract more tons and refine them more because the reserves may not be as pure.
力拓首席执行长艾博年(Tom Albanese)说,矿业公司手头不缺现金,但开采或扩大新矿的进程被政府审批的延误(这增加了劳动力和机械成本)以及有限的港口和铁路运能所拖累。那些最容易开发的矿产资源已经被各大公司开采了,剩下的矿需要深入挖掘才行,这也增加了成本。由于矿产资源可能不纯,现在也必须开采更多的矿,进行更细致的提炼。
"Even when we do find the new resources and our engineers are ready to go, we find that it's actually taking longer than it would have 10 to 20 years ago to deliver them to the market," Mr. Albanese told investors in Hong Kong last week. "Five years ago it was hard to look at a project without spending at least $500 million. Today I would have to say it's hard to look at a project without spending at least $2-$3 billion."
艾博年上周在香港告诉投资者,即便我们找到了新的矿产资源,我们的工程师也准备好了,我们发现比起10至20年前,现在想要将矿产资源送到市场需要更多的时间。艾博年又说,五年前,如果没有5亿美元你很难去考虑一个项目。今天我要说没有至少20亿至30亿美元,你很难考虑一个项目。
In recent weeks, Rio Tinto, which posted a record $14 billion in earnings in 2010 and had $23.5 billion in cash from operations, boosted its 2011 capital expenditure budget to $13 billion from the previous $11 billion estimated last winter. Guy Elliott, the chief financial officer of Rio Tinto, says the miner is going to focus on small to medium-sized acquisitions up to the 'single-digit' billion-dollar range.
最近几周力拓将2011年的资本支出预算从去年冬天估计的110亿美元提高到130亿美元,其首席执行长艾略特(Guy Elliott)说该公司打算将重点放在价值不超过10亿美元的中小型收购上。力拓公布了2010年创纪录的140亿美元的利润,营业现金收入为235亿美元。
Supplies of certain minerals, copper in particular, are expected to be tight. Demand for copper, which is used in commercial construction and industrial piping, is outstripping supply by about 400,000 metric tons a year, according to analysts. Demand for iron ore, used to make steel, is expected to exceed supply for at least the next five years as steel mills in China increase their own production.
某些矿物的供应(尤其是铜)预计将紧张。据分析师估计,铜的需求缺口一年约为40万吨。铜主要用于商业建筑和工业管道。预计至少未来五年用于炼钢的铁矿石都将出现需求缺口,因为中国的钢铁厂提高了产能。
'No matter how much will is out there to do these new projects, you are probably going to be in a position of under supply, with copper being the most extreme,' says Mike Elliott, who heads Ernst & Young's global mining and metals practice in Australia. Investment and development is constrained in part by the limited ports and rails, he says.
安永会计师事务所驻澳大利亚的全球矿业和金属业务主管埃利奥特(Mike Elliott)说,不管你多么希望能做成这些新的项目,你很可能会碰到供给不足的情况,其中需求缺口最大的是铜。埃利奥特又说,投资和开采受到限制的部分原因是港口和铁路运能有限。
Having spent the last two years significantly reducing debt loads, miners are expected to ramp up investment and exceed 2009's spending level of $113.7 billion for 1,123 deals, according to the latest report from Ernst & Young's mining research and consulting.
安永会计师事务所矿业研究和咨询的最新报告显示,在过去两年大幅降低债务负担之后,各大矿业公司预计将增加投资,并超过2009年1,137亿美元的支出水平(共计1,123宗交易)。
Rio Tinto slashed debt to $4.3 billion in 2010, from $18.9 billion at the end of 2009. Xstrata PLC reduced its net debt by 38% to $7.64 billion from $12.3 billion.
力拓将债务水平从2009年底的189亿美元削减至2010年的43亿美元。而Xstrata PLC将净债务水平从123亿美元降低到了76.4亿美元,降低了38%。
BHP has about $16 billion of cash on hand and an undrawn $4 billion revolving-credit facility, according to its latest financial results. The miner says that it will spend about $80 billion in growth projects over the next five years to find and develop new resource projects in order to meet the world's demand for more metals and minerals.
必和必拓最新的财务业绩显示,该公司手头约有160亿美元的现金,另外还有40亿美元的循环信用额度没有使用。这家矿业公司说,为了满足全球对金属和矿物的更多需求,该公司计划未来五年在成长性项目上花费大约800亿美元,以寻找和开采新的矿产资源。
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