While the brokers churn out research fretting about a possible slowdown in China’s property market as a result of inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy, their fears hadn’t infected most participants at the PERE (private equity real estate) Forum in Hong Kong February 15 and February 16.

　　尽管各券商不断出台研究报告，称通胀压力和货币政策收紧可能导致中国地产市场放缓，但他们的担心并未传染给2月15、16日在香港举行的PERE（私人股本房地产）论坛的多数参加者。

　　Indeed the mood was positively optimistic. Most attendees confessed to being surprised by just how resilient the real estate market has been in the face of policies from Beijing to damp down both demand and prices. For example, only 2 per cent of the participants thronging the meeting room at the Four Seasons hotel thought restrictions on bank lending posed any risk at all to the property story in China.

　　事实上，论坛参加者的情绪颇为乐观。多数参加者坦承，面对中国政府旨在遏制需求和价格的各项政策，中国房地产市场表现出的弹性令他们感到意外。例如，在挤满四季酒店(Four Seasons hotel)会议厅的参加者中，只有2%的人认为，针对银行贷款的限制措施，对中国楼市前景构成了一些风险。

　　"It is still business as usual for developers,” said one Standard Chartered banker. “We are comfortable with real estate in China.”

　　“对开发商来说，一切仍然照常，”渣打(Standard Chartered)的一名银行家表示。“我们对中国房地产市场感到放心。”

　　Moreover, the panelists were even more optimistic than the audience. For example, Tom Delatour, the chief executive of Century Bridge Capital, which is based in Beijing and Dallas, noted that in China’s Tier Two cities, a group which includes about 40 cities, incomes are rising faster than home prices, which means that affordability isn’t a big issue. By contrast, in both Japan and the US flat or falling incomes was a big reason that rising property prices eventually became unsustainable.

　　这还不算，讨论小组的成员甚至比听众更加乐观。比如，以北京和达拉斯为基地开展运营的美国世纪桥投资公司(Century Bridge Capital)首席执行官汤姆?德拉图尔(Tom Delatour)指出，在中国大约40座二线城市，居民收入增长速度超过了房价的涨幅，这意味着价格负担能力不是一个大问题。与此形成反差的是，在日本和美国，收入停滞不前或下降，是房价上涨最终变得不可持续的一大原因。

　　Delatour has teamed up with developers in cities like Xian and Chongqing to provide middle class housing. By being in line with Beijing’s priorities, he believes he is actually the beneficiary of any future cooling.

　　德拉图尔已与西安和重庆等城市的开发商联手，提供面向中产阶层的住宅。他相信，通过与北京方面的工作重点保持一致，他实际上将得益于未来的降温措施。

　　Many panelists thought the fact that the government is intrusive was actually a good thing since it makes the environment predictable. “They tell you what they want and they tell you way in advance,” noted Eddie Wong, chief executive of Winnington Capital. “That’s a plus.”

　　许多讨论小组成员认为，政府喜欢干预其实是一件好事，因为这使整个环境可以预测。“他们告诉你他们想要什么，而且很早就告诉了你，”永灵通金融(Winnington Capital)首席执行官王运光(Eddie Wong)指出。“这是一个有利因素。”

　　To be sure there are downsides imbedded in the positive story. It means that there aren’t likely to be distressed sales any time soon. (And any time there is a distressed sale, there are likely to be serious problems with say the title or other legal issues.) It also means that hopeful providers of capital from offshore are not likely to have any more leverage tomorrow than they did yesterday, unless conditions change radically.

　　当然，乐观的背后也蕴含着不利之处。这意味着近期内不太可能出现困境抛售。（而且困境抛售往往会伴随严重的问题，如产权或其它法律问题。）这还意味着海外潜在资本提供者的影响力不太可能很快增强——除非情况发生大变。