A recent decline in Chinese real-estate prices is starting to shake confidence in the country's economic vitality and open a debate about whether the country's economy is over-leveraged. That's what made the real-estate bubble's aftermath so painful for the U.S. and Japan.

　　中国房价最近下降，开始动摇人们对该国经济活力的信心，并引发中国杠杆率是否过高的争论。正是这些，让房地产泡沫的破灭给美国和日本带来了如此大的痛苦。

　　Just two months ago, China expert Nicholas Lardy dismissed concerns about what he labeled a "so-called property bubble" during a conference at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

　　仅两个月之前，中国问题专家拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)在华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)一个会议上，还以不以为然的态度看待人们对他眼中“所谓房地产泡沫”的担心。

　　Now, he says a housing downturn could produce a "major, major economic correction" in China, a view shared by other mainstream economists.

　　Zuma Press2011年6月22日，贵州省贵阳市，花溪区一处公共租赁住房项目的建设工地。现在，他却说，如果房地产市况回落，则有可能在中国引起一场“重大的经济调整”。其他主流经济学家也持这种观点。

　　What changed? A growing realization that much of China's massive stimulus spending and lending of 2009 and 2010 ended up in land purchases, driving up prices in an unsustainable fashion. And a recognition that the Chinese economic system routinely produces bubbles and is unlikely to change any time soon.

　　是什么发生了变化？变化在于，人们越来越意识到，2009年和2010年中国大规模刺激性支出和贷款，有很大一部分最终都用来购买土地，导致房价以不可持续的态势上涨。变化还在于，人们意识到中国的经济制度经常导致泡沫产生，并且不太可能很快改变。

　　 The government keeps bank deposit rates well below the rate of inflation to benefit state-owned banks and other firms, which have the political power to defend the status quo. With few financial alternatives to beat inflation, Chinese savers buy real estate, even if supply soars ahead of demand.

　　(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal website, WSJ.com.) 政府将银行存款利率维持在远低于通货膨胀率的水平，从而有利于国有银行和其他国有企业。而这些企业又拥有维护现状的政治实力。由于其他抗通胀理财工具很少，中国储户就购买房地产，哪怕供应的增长远远超过需求。Between 2006 and 2010, investment in residential property jumped by half, to about 9% of China's gross domestic product, according to Mr. Lardy. During that time, real-estate prices in major cities in China roughly doubled.

　　据拉迪说，2006年到2010年，住宅类房地产投资增长50%，达到中国国内生产总值(GDP)的9%左右。在这段时期内，中国主要城市的房价基本上翻了一番。

　　During the next three to five years, says UBS economist Wang Tao, prices are bound to head sharply upward again because of the paucity of alternative investments for Chinese savers and the reliance of local governments on land sales for revenue. At some point, she figures, the boom could give way to a bust.

　　据瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛说，未来三到五年，由于储户替代性投资渠道的缺乏，以及地方政府收入对土地销售的依赖，房价必定会再度大幅上扬。她预计这种繁荣可能会在某个时候归于破灭。

　　Mr. Lardy expects the cycle to play out more quickly. Kynikos Associates short-seller James Chanos has been predicting for two years that a crash is imminent. No one knows for sure, of course. A number of events could trigger a big selloff, including a sharp rise in interest rates, the emergence of other investment options and higher taxes on property.

　　拉迪预计这种周期的循环会更快。对冲基金公司Kynikos Associates的空头投资家查诺斯(James Chanos)两年以来一直预计崩溃即将来临。当然谁也不敢肯定是不是马上就会出现崩溃。好几个因素都有可能导致房价大跌，比如利率突升，其他投资渠道兴起，以及针对房产的税收增加等。

　　Estimates of how badly the economy could be damaged by a real-estate slump reflect different views of the structure of the Chinese economy.

　　房价暴跌可能对经济造成多大伤害？这方面的不同估计反映出对中国经济结构的不同看法。

　　The strength of the real-estate market directly affects the construction, steel, concrete, power and appliance industries. In all, about 50% of China's GDP is linked to the fate of its real-estate market, according to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green.

　　房地产市场景气与否直接影响到建筑、钢铁、水泥、电力和家电行业。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)估计，中国共计约50%的GDP都与房地产市场的命运相关。

　　While a downturn would batter the economy, Mr. Green said, it wouldn't be as devastating as the burst bubbles in the U.S. and Japan.

　　王志浩说，虽然房地产市场转跌将给经济造成沉重打击，但其破坏性将赶不上美国和日本房地产泡沫的破灭。

　　In those cases, falling real-estate prices caused bad debt to mushroom, crippling the banking industry, too, and drying up credit.

　　在美国和日本，房地产价格的下降造成坏账急剧增加，也给银行业带来严重破坏，并造成信贷枯竭。

　　However, in China, far fewer consumers use debt to buy homes. There isn't a Chinese equivalent of the U.S. subprime mortgage.

　　不过在中国，贷款买房的人要少得多。中国没有相当于美国次级贷款这样的产品。

　　Other analysts say there are far more leveraged purchases of real estate than recognized in the official statistics.

　　其他分析师说，购买房地产的贷款金额要远远大于官方统计。

　　 To fight the effects of the global downturn, Chinese state-owned banks, on government orders, loaned about $3 trillion, mostly to giant state-owned enterprises. The money was reported to have largely financed infrastructure projects, such as China's ambitious high-speed railway network.

　　为对抗全球经济衰退的影响，中国国有银行面对政府订单，发放了约3万亿贷款，而放款对象主要是大型国企。据说这笔钱基本上都用于资助基础设施建设，如中国雄心勃勃的高速铁路网。

　　But many of the loans wound up financing real-estate purchases instead, said Deng Yongheng, director of the Institute of Real Estate Studies at the National University of Singapore.

　　但新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)房地产研究所所长邓永恒说，上述贷款中，有很多到头来还是变成了购买房地产的融资贷款。

　　Prices at auctions for residential land in eight major cities doubled in 2009, largely because of highly leveraged purchases by state-owned companies, he and three co-authors calculate. In March 2010, state-owned companies bid up the price of one piece of Beijing land to 10 times the asking price, according to one analyst.

　　邓永恒与其他三位作者推测，中国八大城市住宅用地拍卖价格2009年出现了翻番，这主要因为国有企业高负债买地。一位分析师表示，2010年3月，北京一块地皮在国有企业竞相出价的哄抬之下，成交价为要价的10倍。

　　The magnitude of the leveraged purchases is hard to gauge.

　　负债买地的规模有多大，目前很难衡量。

　　One indication: Shortly after the Beijing land sale, the Chinese agency that oversees state-owned companies, ordered 78 firms--whose charters had nothing to do with real estate--to cease buying and selling property. Nearly a year later, in Feb. 2011, state-owned Xinhua news agency reported that just 14 firms had left the business and another 20 were expected to get out later in the year.

　　有迹象显示，北京这块地皮售出后不久，监管中国国有企业的政府部门就责令78家不以房地产为主业的央企停止房地产买卖行为。近一年后，即2011年2月，新华社报道称，只有14家公司退出房地产领域，另外20家有望今年晚些时候退出。

　　A spokesman for the agency said that the firms needed time to finish their projects, but added that there isn't any prohibition against companies owned by provinces or municipalities to continue to invest in real estate.

　　上述部门的发言人说，这些央企做完手里的项目需要时间，但又说，没有任何阻止省属和市属国企继续投资房地产的禁令。

　　Over the past year, the Chinese government has put in place measures to temper real-estate sales, including raising the minimum downpayment for mortgages on second homes to 60% and enacting China's first property tax. A number of economists forecast those steps will drive down prices about 10% by year-end. With demand drying up for apartments, real-estate developers are starting to invest in mines, reports state-run China Daily.

　　过去一年，中国政府推出了多种楼市降温措施，诸如提高第二套房首付比例至60%并颁布了中国首个物业税等。很多经济学家预测，在这些措施的作用下，房价到年底会下跌约10%。中国官方英文报纸《中国日报》(China Daily)报道说，由于公寓需求逐渐消失，房地产开发商开始投资矿产项目。

　　But few expect the antibubble measures to last, given concern by the government and Communist Party about sustaining growth, which they see as a key to social stability.

　　但预计反楼市泡沫措施将持续的人是少之又少，因为中国政府和共产党关注可持续增长，认为这是维持社会稳定的关键。

　　Late last week, an HSBC manufacturing activity index registered an 11-month low. The government's official purchasing manager's index, which usually lines up with the HSBC data, is due to be published Friday.

　　 上周晚些时候，汇丰银行(HSBC)的制造业活动指数出现11个月来的新低。中国政府官方采购经理人指数将于本周五发布，该指数一般与汇丰银行的数据保持一致。

　　Charlene Chu, a Fitch Ratings Service analyst in Beijing, who has documented how China's official statistics understate total lending, said state-owned firms have taken on heavy real estate debt.

　　 惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings Service)驻北京分析师朱夏莲(Charlene Chu)用资料证明，中国官方统计数据大大低估了贷款总额，并说中国国企已经背上了沉重的房地产债务。

　　Thus a sharp fall in prices would produce a raft of nonperforming loans and "would have an outsized impact on Chinese banks." In other words, a real-estate collapse could lead to a banking crisis--the kind of woes that have undermined the U.S. and Japan.

　　如此说来，房价暴跌将产生大量不良贷款，给中资银行带来巨大影响。换句话说，中国房地产市场崩盘可能导致银行业危机，而这类危机曾削弱了美国和日本经济。