The U.S. and other of China's largest trading partners have been arguing for years now that revaluing the yuan would be good for China's economy. Sure, China might lose some jobs in the export sector as the yuan became more expensive in dollar and euro terms. But it would make up for that disadvantage by boosting the purchasing power of Chinese consumers -- whose purchases would create jobs in other sectors of the economy, especially services.

　　多年来，美国和中国其它一些主要贸易伙伴一直在说人民币升值对中国经济有利。人民币兑美元和欧元升值后，中国的出口部门可能会损失一些工作岗位，但中国消费者购买力的增强又可以弥补这种劣势，因为购买力的增强可以在经济中的其它部门创造就业，尤其是服务业。

　　A new International Monetary Fund report, however, warns China against expecting such a happy outcome.

　　Doug Kanter/Bloomberg News在中国，农业将成为唯一不受人民币汇率升值影响的行业？但国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，简称：IMF）最近出版的一份报告却告诫中国，人民币升值的后果可能没有上面描述的那么美好。

　　A 10% increase in the value of the yuan, adjusted for inflation, would reduce employment growth by 0.4 to 1.4 percentage points "across sectors except for agriculture," calculate IMF economists Ruo Chen and Mai Dao. Employment growth would slow not only in the export industry but in service industries too.

　　IMF的经济学家Ruo Chen和Mai Dao测算后得出，经通胀因素调整后，人民币若升值10%，那么非农行业的就业增长率将降低0.4%，至1.4%。换句话说，不仅出口部门的就业增长率会降低，服务业也会。

　　Why would appreciation cause an across-the-board slowdown in job growth? The authors say that services and manufacturing aren't as distinct as they seem. The cost of exported manufactured goods includes a range of services, including banking, transport, retailing and energy. "Thus if a real appreciation leads to a contraction in tradable sectors"--i.e., manufactured goods for export -- "the ensuing negative effect on demand for intermediate input can lead to a decrease in employment in non-tradable sectors as well."

　　为什么人民币升值会导致就业增长率的全面下降？两位作者说，服务业和制造业并非像看上去的那样毫无关联。出口的工业制成品的成本包括一系列服务，其中涉及银行业、运输业、零售业以及能源业。因此，如果人民币的实际升值导致贸易部门的收缩，比如工业制成品出口量下降，中间投入需求因此下降，非贸易部门的就业增长率最终也会跟着下降。

　　In other words, fewer jobs in the Chinese export toy business means fewer jobs in banks, trucks, utilities and wholesalers that supply the toy manufacturers.

　　换句话说，中国玩具出口业的就业机会减少，意味着给玩具厂商提供各种服务的银行业、运输业、公用事业部门以及批发商的就业岗位也会跟着减少。

　　The authors, who several times call their conclusion a "surprise," say that they were looking at the short-term job effects. The work was conducted as part of the IMF's annual review of China's economy, which is due to be released in mid-July.

　　两位作者多次将他们的结论称作“意外的发现”，并说他们观察的只是人民币升值对就业市场的短期影响。这项研究是IMF对中国经济年度审核的组成部分，研究成果将于今年7月中旬发布。

　　Over the longer term, some economists argue, China would be better off relying on domestic demand and service companies, rather than export companies whose fate is tied to the ups and downs of the U.S. economy. But, like all countries, China worries more about short-term employment effects than long-term theories about restructuring.

　　从长远来看，一些经济学家认为，中国依靠国内消费和服务业而非与美国经济息息相关的出口业会更为有利。但是，和所有其它国家一样，相对于有关经济转型的长期理论，中国更担心就业受到的短期影响。

　　Currently, China is letting its currency rise about 0.5% a month against the dollar. If China focuses even more on the job effects of its foreign-exchange rate policy, don't expect a big change in the pace of change.

　　目前，人民币对美元的月度升值幅度大约为0.5%。假如中国更在意汇率政策对就业的影响，那么就别指望人民币的升值速度会明显加快。