The Federal Reserve is just days away from ending one of the major steps to aid the U.S. economy─but the effort has done little to solve the original problem: The government and individuals alike are still heavily in debt.

　　美联储离结束其帮助美国经济复苏的一项重大举措的最后期限只剩几天的时间了，但这项措施基本未能解决本质问题：美国政府和个人仍然负债累累。

　　Around the globe, the inability of governments and households to reduce their debt continues to cast a shadow over Western economies and the financial health of individuals. Today, U.S. consumers have more mortgage and credit-card debt than they did five years ago, and the U.S. budget deficit is worsening. At the same time, European governments are having to throw billions more euros at Greece to keep it afloat.

　　放眼全球，各国政府和家庭无力减轻债务负担的现实继续给西方经济体以及个人的财务状况蒙上了一层阴影。今天，美国消费者比五年前背负更多抵押贷款和信用卡债务，美国的预算赤字还在恶化。与此同时，欧洲各国政府不得不继续砸进数十亿欧元，为的只是能避免希腊破产。

The repercussions are likely to play out for years to come in the form of patchy economic growth, further government market intervention─such as last week's decision by oil-consuming nations to release more oil onto the markets─and frequent financial-market swings.

　　债务负担过重的后果有可能在今后几年以各种形式渐渐表现出来：经济增长不均匀；政府加强对市场的干预（比如上周石油消费国决定向市场释放战略石油储备）；金融市场频繁动荡。

The fundamental problem is that reversing the trend of piling on the debt requires some combination of cutting spending, growing income or the economy, and inflation. But wage growth is stagnant and home prices, which underpin much of the debt problem, are still falling.

　　根本问题在于，想要逆转债务堆积的趋势，需要一系列举措的配合：削减开支；增加收入并促进经济增长；应对通胀。但目前的现状是，工资增长停滞；构成债务问题主要原因的房价却仍然在下跌。

　　Meanwhile, in a vicious circle, businesses aren't hiring or investing because they know consumers are tapped out. Banks, for their part, are hoarding cash, being stingy with new loans.

　　与此同时，一个恶性循环出现了：企业不愿雇工或投资，因为他们知道消费者囊中羞涩；银行则宁可守着现金也不愿放出新的贷款。

　　Unlike the aftermath of typical recessions, simply lowering interest rates hasn't been enough to get growth back on track, economists say. Central-bank efforts have boosted financial markets in the short term─raising stock prices and significantly lowering interest rates─but they have been unable to push people and governments to whittle down debt.

　　经济学家说，通常衰退过后只要降低利率就能让经济增长回到正轨。可这一次仅仅这么做就不够了。中央银行推出的举措短期内提振了金融市场：股价上升，利率大幅降低。但央行却没有办法让政府和个人逐渐削减债务。

　　Quite the opposite has been the case. The lowered cost of borrowing has enabled individuals and governments to delay taking measures to change the way they spend and save.

　　事与愿违的是，借贷成本的降低使个人和政府并不急着采取措施改变他们的消费和储蓄习惯。

　　Given the difficulties of paying down debt, "you have to get comfortable with the idea that it's going to take a long time for the markets to adjust and the economy to get back on solid footing," says Tom Luster, director of investment-grade-bond research at Eaton Vance Investment Managers.

　　财富管理公司Eaton Vance Investment Managers的投资级债券研究总监拉斯特（Tom Luster）说，由于偿还债务并不容易，你得适应这样一种情况，即市场做出调整且经济重新企稳需要很长的时间。

　　Carmen Reinhart, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has said that the experience of past financial crises suggests the unwinding of debt on average takes seven years, with debt ratios not coming down significantly until three years after a crisis.

　　彼得森国际经济研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）高级研究员卡门•莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）说，过去几次金融危机的经验表明，想要完全甩掉债务负担平均需要七年的时间，危机发生后的头三年负债比率不会显著下降。

　　"The issue with debt is you can't get rid of it quickly and you can"t get rid of it nicely," Ms. Reinhart says.

　　莱因哈特说，问题在于你无法很快且令人满意地甩掉债务包袱。

　　Ms. Reinhart looked at 15 post-World War II financial crises and found that seven involved a double-dip back into recession. She says the current economic weakness highlights a feature of the post-financial-crisis landscape that investors and businesses need to become accustomed to: "The ability to absorb shocks that you normally could withstand…is much more limited," she says.

　　莱因哈特仔细研究了二战以后15次金融危机的情况，发现其中七次都涉及双底衰退（即W型复苏）。她说目前经济疲软凸显了金融危机过后经济格局的一种特征，即投资者和企业必须习惯以下现象：其承受一般性冲击的能力会大大受到影响。

　　"If your household is already feeling the weight of an underwater mortgage…you're going to feel differently about adding more debt to absorb the cost of gas," Ms. Reinhart says.

　　莱因哈特说，如果因为房价下跌，你的按揭贷款住宅已经是负资产了，那么因油价上升而造成更多负债，你对此的感受肯定是和别人不一样的。

　　Since the autumn of 2008 there have been repeated attempts by central banks and governments to cushion the blow of the debt-cutting process. In the U.S., efforts included the Fed's first round of so-called quantitative easing, in which the Fed essentially printed money through purchases of more than $1 trillion of mortgage-backed securities. There have been multiple rounds of stimulus by the federal government. The European Central Bank, along with the Bank of England, also employed quantitative easing.

　　自2008年秋天以来，各国央行和政府多次尝试降低债务减缩造成的冲击。美国推出的举措包括被称作第一轮量化宽松的货币政策。从本质上讲，这是美联储通过印钞购买总值超过1万亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。联邦政府也已经推出了好几轮刺激计划。欧洲央行和英国央行也采取了量化宽松的做法。

　　This week the Fed is set to end its second round of quantitative easing, known as "QE2," which pumped $600 billion into the financial markets since last autumn. All told, the Fed has flooded the markets with roughly $2 trillion since August 2008.

　　按照计划，本周美联储将结束第二轮量化宽松政策（即QE2）。自去年秋天以来美联储通过本轮量化宽松已经向金融市场注入6,000亿美元的资金。如果算上2008年8月后推出的第一轮量化宽松，美联储已经总计向市场注入了大约2万亿美元。

　　Yet U.S. consumers have 37% more credit-card, auto and other nonmortgage debt than a decade ago, before adjusting for inflation, according to the Fed. That is down 6% from its peak of $2.6 trillion hit in September 2008, but most of that decline took place within the first 12 months. Over the past year, consumer credit has been essentially flat at around $2.4 trillion.

　　据美联储透露，美国消费者信用卡、车贷以及其它非抵押贷款债务的总额比10年前高出37%（未经通胀因素调整）。这一数字较2008年9月创下的最高记录2.6万亿美元下降了6%，但债务总量的下降主要是在金融危机出现后的头12个月内发生的。过去一年，消费信贷大致保持在2.4万亿美元的水平。

　　The news is especially grim when it comes to mortgage debt. Nearly 23% of mortgages are underwater, according to data compiled by J.P. Morgan Chase. Meanwhile, there is still more mortgage debt outstanding than there was five years ago, roughly $9.9 trillion, according to the Fed. The result is consumers find it harder to tap home-equity credit lines or sell their houses.

　　当涉及抵押贷款债务时，这一消息就显得尤其严峻了。摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase）汇编的数据显示，近23%的抵押贷款出现资不抵债的情况。与此同时，据美联储数据，未偿付的抵押贷款债务总额高于五年前，约为9.9万亿美元。其结果就是消费者更难申请房屋净值贷款、也更难出售房屋。

　　Pumping money into the financial system "doesn't stop the need for the private sector to heal itself," says Dominic Wilson, chief global-markets economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. "We're still facing the headwinds of an economy that is struggling to get on its feet without stimulus."

　　高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）首席全球市场经济学家威尔逊（Dominic Wilson）说，向金融体系注入资金不能取代私营部门自愈的需要。当前经济仍然难以在不借助经济刺激的情况下实现增长，给我们造成了很大的阻碍。

　　On the fiscal front, the outlook is worsening. The U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio will hit 100% this year, up from 62% in 2007, according to the IMF

　　财政状况的前景也在恶化。据国际货币基金组织（IMF）透露，美国政府债务与GDP的比率今年将达到100%，2007年这一比率还只有62%。

　　The core of Europe is seeing fiscal balances worsening as well. Germany's debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to be 80% this year, up from 65% in 2008. France will reach 88%, up from 64%, according to the IMF.

　　欧洲主要国家的财政状况也在恶化。据IMF透露，今年德国债务对GDP比率预计将达到80%，高于2008年65%的水平。法国的这一比率也将从64%上升到88%。

　　The Congressional Budget Office last week forecast that the amount of government debt will reach its highest point relative to the size of the economy since just after World War II.

　　 国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）上周预测，相对于经济规模来说，政府债务的规模将达到自二战结束以来的最高水平。

　　This environment is a stark contrast to the so-called "Great Moderation" of the late 1980s and 1990s when economic ups and downs were shallower. That economic resiliency "had a lot to do with increased ability to access the credit markets," says Jason DeSena Trennert, chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners. "Without the benefits of that cushion…the volatility of economic growth is going to be greater."

　　当前的经济环境和上世纪80年代末以及90年代出现的所谓“大缓和”（Great Moderation）形成了鲜明对比。当时经济的上下波动没有这么剧烈。机构经纪商Strategas Research Partners首席投资策略师特伦纳特（Jason DeSena Trennert）说，当时经济复苏的能力较强和信贷市场能够发挥更大作用有着很大的关系。失去这个缓冲机制带来的好处，经济增长的波动将会加大。

　　The uneven economic performance is translating into frequent sharp reversals of sentiment in markets. Goldman's Mr. Wilson says it is most evident in the short-term bond markets.

　　不均衡的经济正表现为市场情绪的剧烈波动。高盛的威尔逊说，这一点在短期债券市场最为明显。

　　"It's definitely a start-and-stop flavor for the markets," says Mr. Wilson.

　　威尔逊说，这种情况肯定会让市场时好时坏。

　　Another effect is that interest rates could stay exceptionally low for much longer than would usually be the case, says former World Bank official and author Liaquat Ahamed, whose book Lords of Finance examined monetary policy in the 1920s and 1930s. He notes rates have been essentially zero in Japan since 1995 and that during the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate to below 2% in 1934 and it held at those levels until the mid-1950s.

　　世界银行（World Bank）前任官员、作家艾哈迈德（Liaquat Ahamed）说，另一个影响是，相比正常情况，超低利率持续的时间可能会长得多。他的作品《金融列王记》（Lords of Finance）回顾了上世纪20至30年代的货币政策。艾哈迈德指出，自1995年以来，日本实际上一直在实施零利率政策。大萧条期间，美联储在1934年将贴现率降到2%以下，并一直维持到上世纪50年代中期。

　　History shows "that when people have borrowed too much, they stop borrowing and interest rates stay very low for a very long time," he says. "So you can forget about investing in bonds."

　　艾哈迈德说，历史证明，当人们负债累累时，大家停止借贷，利率将在长时间内停留在超低水平。所以就别去想投资债券了。