Thailand is on the cusp of having its first-ever woman prime minister after ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra's youngest sister won a decisive election victory Sunday that challenges the political dominance of the armed forces.

　　泰国前总理他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)最小的妹妹在周日的选举中取得了决定性的胜利，挑战了军方在政界的主导地位，即将成为泰国历史上的首位女总理。

　　Unofficial results indicate supporters in Mr. Thaksin's Puea Thai, or For Thais, party won a majority in the hotly-contested elections, winning an estimated 264 seats in the 500-seat legislature with 98% of the count completed, according to Thailand's Election Commission. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva conceded defeat after his governing Democrat party won just 162 seats, and on Monday morning resigned as Democrat leader, although he will remain in place as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

　　Reuters泰国前总理他信的妹妹英拉•西那瓦(Yingluck Shinawatra)有望成为泰国历史上的首位女总理。图为英拉在曼谷投票后被媒体围住。

　　据泰国选举委员会说，据非官方结果显示，他信所在的为泰党(Puea Thai party)的支持者在激烈的选举中赢得了多数席位；在计票完成了98%时，获得了议会500个席位中的约264个。泰国总理阿披实(Abhisit Vejjajiva)领导的执政党民主党(Democrat party)仅赢得了162个席位，他承认选举失败，并于周一早间辞任民主党党魁。不过，在新政府组阁前，他将留任泰国总理。

　　That result makes it almost certain that Parliament will elect Mr. Thaksin's younger sister, businesswoman Yingluck Shinawatra, 44 years old, as Thailand's next prime minister in the coming months.

　　这一结果几乎肯定意味着，未来几个月议会将选举他信44岁的妹妹、女商人英拉(Yingluck Shinawatra)担任泰国下任总理。

　　It also represents a major victory for Mr. Thaksin, a populist telecommunications billionaire who was ousted by Thailand's military in a coup five years ago but who has continued to rally his supporters from abroad, at times leading to violent clashes in Bangkok and elsewhere. It remains unclear when, or if, he will return from his self-imposed exile in Dubai, but the result means he is likely to play a major role in governing one of Southeast Asia's most important economies for some time.

　　这对身家数十亿美元的民粹主义电信巨子他信来说也是一场重大的胜利。五年前，他信在泰国的一场军事政变中被赶下台，不过他一直继续在海外召集支持者，甚至曾在曼谷等地造成暴力冲突。目前仍不清楚他信是否以及何时将结束迪拜的流亡生活回国，不过选举的结果意味着，在一段时间内，他很可能在东南亚最重要的经济体之一泰国的治理中发挥重要作用。

　　At Puea Thai's headquarters in Bangkok, Ms. Yingluck was besieged by photographers as she stepped out to greet supporters. 'Thaksin called me to congratulate and encourage me,' she said. Mr. Thaksin himself also telephoned local television networks to celebrate and urge reconciliation with Thailand's military.

　　在曼谷为泰党的总部，英拉走出来向支持者致意时，被摄影师包围。她说，他信打电话给我，向我表示祝贺并提出了鼓励。他信还亲自致电当地电视台，表示庆祝，并敦促与泰国军方达成和解。

　　Later, Ms. Yingluck told a news conference she had already conferred with smaller parties about creating a broader governing coalition. She vowed, too, to deliver on her campaign pledges to raise wages and living standards.

　　之后，英拉在新闻发布会上说，她已经与较小的党派就创建一个更广泛的执政联盟进行了磋商。她还郑重承诺将兑现自己的选举诺言，提高民众的工资和生活水平。

　　The question going forward, analysts say, is whether the politically inexperienced Ms. Yingluck will be able to hang on to power for long─and whether she can help stabilize this key U.S. ally at a time when Washington is taking a greater interest in Southeast Asia as it tries to counter China's growing influence in the region.

　　泰国前总理他信的妹妹、为泰党总理竞选人英拉在周日的选举中取得了决定性的胜利，即将成为泰国历史上的首位女总理。动荡的泰国政局是否会因此出现转折点？这一消息又会对市场造成怎样的影响？《华尔街日报》的Jake Lee和Peter Stein对以上问题进行了讨论。分析人士说，接下来的问题是缺乏政治经验的英拉是否能够长期执政，以及她是否能够帮助稳定美国的这个重要盟友，而目前华盛顿正努力反制中国在东南亚日益增强的影响力，开始对这一地区表现出更大的兴趣。

　　'The larger the majority, the more stable the Puea Thai government will be and the harder it will be for the army or other institutions to move against it,' said Pavin Chachavalpongpun from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, referring to the military's long history of intervening in Thai politics.

　　新加坡东南亚研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)的Pavin Chachavalpongpun说，获得的多数席位越多，为泰党的执政将越稳定，军方或其他组织越难以反对它。他指的是泰国军方干预泰国政局的漫长历史。

　　Since the 2006 coup, Thailand has seen its reputation as 'The Land of Smiles' badly tarnished amid violent street protests and an economically damaging airport blockade. Analysts say an increasingly politicized judiciary has also emerged. In 2008 alone, two pro-Thaksin premiers were forced to step down after falling foul of the country's courts─one for accepting payments to appear on a television cooking show and the other for vote buying.

　　自2006年的政变以来，泰国曾多次发生街头暴力抗议活动，机场也一度被封锁，使经济受到严重破坏。泰国“微笑之国”的声誉受到了严重损害。分析人士说，此外，还出现了越来越政治化的司法部门。仅在2008年，就有两位亲他信的总理因惹上官司而被迫下台──一位是收钱在电视烹饪节目中露面，一位是买选票。

　　Already, Thailand's Election Commission says it has received 196 complaints about vote-buying in these latest polls, which could leave the door open to challenges of the results down the road.

　　泰国选举委员会说，已经收到了196人的投诉，他们说最近几次的投票中存在买选票的现象，这可能为未来挑战选举结果打开大门。

　　But people familiar with the situation say Puea Thai emissaries and senior military officers have been discussing how to manage the outcome of the elections for weeks in order to guide Thailand out of its cycle of elections, coups and government dissolutions.

　　不过，据知情人士说，为泰党的特使和高层军事官员数周来一直在讨论如何管理选举结果，以便指引泰国走出选举、政变、政府解体的怪圈。