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There’s often a long lag between China signaling financial reform and the reform actually happening. But the wait for an international board in Shanghai an idea first floated in 2009 ─ is becoming China’s version of Waiting for Godot, with officials repeatedly dropping hints that foreign companies might soon be allowed to list yuan-denominated shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange only to fall silent when pressed for details.
中国在释放金融改革信号和实际推行改革之间往往有很长的时间差。但等待上海推出国际板的过程正在成为中国版的《等待戈多》:相关官员多次暗示,外国公司可能很快就能在上海证券交易所(简称:上交所)发行人民币计价的股票。可是每当被问及细节信息时,这些官员又沉默不语了。推出国际板的想法最早是在2009年提出的。
Some clarity is starting to seep through, however.
但有些细节正开始浮出水面。
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Hu Ruyin, head of the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s research department said that the board would help route part of the country’s massive foreign exchange reserves overseas.
Eugene Hoshiko/Associated Press2011年4月26日,在上海的一家私营证券公司,一名投资者注视着屏幕上的股票价格。在接受道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)采访时,上交所研究中心主任胡汝银说,上交所将帮助中国把天量外汇储备部分分流到海外。
“China is facing a large imbalance in its international payments, while the international board will be supportive in easing the pressures arising from growing forex reserves as foreign companies could convert the yuan funds raised in the country into foreign currencies and remit such funds overseas,” Mr. Hu said.
胡汝银说,中国正面临国际收支严重失衡的现状,而国际板的推出有助于缓解因外汇储备不断增加造成的压力。因为外国公司可以将在国内筹集的人民币资金转化为外汇,并将这笔资金输出到海外。
Alleviating the pressure of China’s unceasing build up of foreign exchange reserves is a key concern for Beijing, and the board could be as useful tool in meeting that goal. Given the size of China’s economy, it may one day be the case whereby foreign companies flock to Shanghai to raise money for projects elsewhere in the world in the same way as they do in the U.S. Given how many Chinese firms have gone overseas to list, as China’s financial markets develop Beijing might hope that a reversal of that flow would follow.
减轻中国外储不断增加的压力是中央政府的主要关切,国际板的推出被视作缓解这种压力的有效工具。鉴于中国的经济规模,总有一天可能会出现这样的情况,即外国公司涌入上海,为其在世界其它地区的项目融资,就好像他们在美国所做的那样。由于已经有大量中国企业赴海外上市,随着中国金融市场的发展,中央政府可能会希望一股相反的潮流能随之而来。
But despite China’s pressing needs, in the short term the foreign firms lining up to list in China might be more focused on keeping their funds here.
尽管中国存在迫切需求,但短期内在中国等待排队上市的外国企业可能还是会将筹集的资金更多地留在中国国内。
Looking at the who’s who of foreign firms that have expressed an interest in listing here a group that includes HSBC Holdings PLC, Coca-Cola Co. and General Electric ─ most will have capital needs in China for quite some time to come. Raising funds in yuan just to move them elsewhere in the world doesn’t make a make much sense yet.
在那些已经对在中国上市表示出兴趣的外国企业中,大部分在未来相当长的一段时间内在中国都有资本需求。筹集人民币资金只是为了把这笔钱输出到世界其它地区的说法行不通。有意在中国上市的企业包括汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings PLC,简称:汇丰控股)、可口可乐公司(Coca-Cola Co)以及通用电气公司(General Electric)。
Moreover, given Chinese investors’ relatively low levels of sophistication, asking them to judge the merits of investing in, say, HSBC Holding’s plans to develop their operations in India, is probably a little premature. That would seem to be an opinion shared by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which only allows punters to invest in overseas listed stocks via fund managers.
此外,相对来说,中国投资者的投资经验并不丰富,要求他们判断──譬如说──汇丰控股在印度拓展业务的计划的优劣可能还为时尚早。对此,中国证券监督管理委员会(简称:证监会)似乎也有相同的看法:目前证监会只允许投资者通过基金经理投资在海外挂牌上市的股票。
Chatter about the imminent launch of the board has grown in the local media in recent months. In April, the 21st Century Business Herald reported on a set of draft rules for the international board (in Chinese), saying that foreign firms would be able to use their yuan proceeds either in China or other countries, although overseas remittance might need approval from the Chinese foreign exchange regulator.
近几个月来,国内媒体也在热议即将推出的国际板。今年4月,《21世纪经济报道》披露了其获得的一份国际板草案,草案说,未来国际板发行人募集的资金可以汇出境外使用,也可在境内使用,但前者可能需要经过外汇管理部门批准。
But the wait is becoming ridiculous. In May at the Lujiazui Forum an annual conference in Shanghai involving Chinese senior financial figures banking regulator Liu Mingkang made a passing reference to the international board in his speech. Following Mr. Liu, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin whose agency would be responsible for the board seemed to be skirting the issue until he thanked Mr. Liu for his interest in the board.
但等待的时间漫长得出奇。今年5月,每年一度的陆家嘴论坛在上海举行,多位中国金融界高官到场发言。中国银监会主席在讲话中顺带提到了国际板问题。在刘明康之后发言的证监会主席尚福林在感谢刘明康对国际板表示出兴趣之前,似乎一直在回避这个问题。证监会将负责国际板推出的各项事宜。
The room held its breath. Was this the announcement everyone’s been waiting for?
大家都屏息凝神:这是否意味着即将公布大家一直在等待的消息?
“We are ever closer to the launch of the international board,” declared Mr. Shang, clearly enjoying the anticipation.
只听尚福林说,我们朝推出国际板又迈出了一步──很显然,尚福林对大家的期待感到得意。
The whole room laughed.
一屋子的人都笑了。
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