China, the world’s largest energy consumer, has a tendency to make a splash when it enters global energy markets.

　　作为全球第一大能源消费国，中国进入全球能源市场时，总会弄出点动静来。

　　In oil markets, crude prices rose along with China’s import volumes in the early 2000s, after the country became a net importer of oil in 1993.

　　在石油市场，中国1993年成为石油净进口国，到了本世纪初，原油价格已开始随中国进口量的增长而上涨。

　　In coal markets, its shift to being a net importer of thermal coal in 2009 pushed prices to their current record highs.

　　在煤炭市场，中国2009年成为热煤净进口国，由此将热煤价格推至目前的创纪录新高。

　　The country may soon have the same effect on natural gas, say analysts.

　　分析人士表示，中国可能很快会给天然气市场带来同样的影响。

　　The government plans to promote natural gas consumption because it is cleaner-burning than oil or coal.

　　由于天然气燃烧所产生的污染低于燃油或燃煤，中国政府计划推广天然气的使用。

　　Under Beijing’s blueprint, gas use will more than double during the next five years to reach 260bn cu m, making China the world’s third-largest gas market after Russia and the US.

　　根据中国政府描绘的蓝图，未来5年，中国天然气消耗量将增加一倍以上，至2600亿立方米，使中国成为全球第三大天然气市场，仅次于俄罗斯和美国。

　　But where will this natural gas come from?

　　但从哪里能获得这么多天然气呢？

　　Currently, China produces most of its own gas, importing 4 per cent of supply from central Asia and a further 11 per cent from LNG shipments.

　　目前，中国绝大部分天然气消耗都能自给，4%的供给从中亚进口，另有11%来自液化天然气(LNG)进口。

　　A key question is, to what extent domestic supplies will be able to keep up with growing demand.

　　一个关键问题在于，面对不断增长的需求，国内供给能满足到什么程度。

　　Ever since the US began producing “unconventional” gas on a large scale – from shale rock or locked in coal deposits – geologists have been looking for the next big unconventional discovery.

　　自从美国开始大规模（从页岩或煤矿）开采“非常规”天然气以来，地质学家一直在寻找下一个非常规油气领域的重大发现。

　　In addition to Europe, where some unconventional gas wells are being drilled, many eyes have lighted on China, which is geologically extremely diverse and not yet surveyed to the same extent as the US.

　　除了目前出产一定量非常规天然气的欧洲，许多人都将目光盯上了中国。中国的地质极其多样化，而勘探程度远不及美国。

　　“Unconventional gas is a dream come true for China’s energy policymakers,” notes a recent report from Jefferies, an investment bank.

　　投资银行Jefferies在最近的一份报告中指出：“对于中国能源行业的政策制定者而言，非常规天然气让梦想成真。”

　　However, it warns that unconventional gas in China is at least a decade away.

　　不过，报告警告称，中国实现非常规天然气大规模生产至少还需要10年时间。

　　“[China’s] conventional assets are still young, untapped, productive and capital-efficient. “

　　（中国的）常规天然气资源仍不成熟，尚未得到充分开发，生产和资金运作的效率都很高。

　　“China does not need to invest in unconventional gas until the easy conventional gas is gone,” the report notes.

　　“在易开采的常规天然气耗光之前，中国都不必投资非常规天然气，”报告如此写道。

　　Investment and drilling of conventional natural gas began in the country in earnest about 10 years ago, and reserves remain high.

　　大约10年前，中国开始认真投资和开采常规天然气，迄今储量仍然丰富。

　　Although the government has offered some incentives for unconventional production, including a special tariff for coal-bed methane, it has yet to be produced on a large scale.

　　尽管中国政府采取了一些激励措施，包括为煤层气提供特别税收优惠，以鼓励非常规天然气生产，但目前尚未开始大规模开采。

　　Last year, unconventional gas accounted for only about 1 per cent of China’s total production.

　　去年，非常规天然气仅占中国能源总产量的1%左右。

　　Because its oil and gas production is dominated by state-owned energy giants such as PetroChina, Sinopec and Cnooc, the success of unconventional gas will depend to a large extent on the appetite and profit incentives of these three companies.

　　由于中国的油气生产都控制在中石油(PetroChina)、中石化(Sinopec)和中海油(Cnooc)等国有能源巨头手中，非常规天然气的成功推广，在很大程度上将取决于这三家企业的生产欲望和逐利动机。

　　Crucially, PetroChina and Sinopec own all national pipeline infrastructure. Independent producers typically have difficulty accessing existing pipelines.

　　关键一点是，全国所有的油气管道基础设施都归中石油和中石化所有。独立生产商通常很难使用现有管道。

　　As a result, some small producers choose to truck their gas to market to avoid tough pipeline negotiations.

　　因此，一些小型生产商选择用卡车向市场运送天然气，以回避艰难的管道使用谈判。

　　According to a report by Wood Mackenzie, the consultancy, last year, Chinese unconventional gas could supply as much as 340m cu m of gas a day by 2030, potentially cutting the need for imports.

　　根据咨询公司Wood Mackenzie去年发布的一份报告，到2030年，中国非常规天然气日产量有望达到3.4亿立方米，有可能会降低对进口的需求。

　　Imports of LNG will fall after 2020 as a result of unconventional gas development, the report says.

　　报告表示，由于非常规天然气的发展，2020年以后，液化天然气进口将减少。

　　However, on the ground, industry executives paint a more mixed picture.

　　但业内高管描绘了一种更为复杂的局面。

　　“Shale gas in China is really different from the US – it is not as promising,” says Steve Zou, chief executive of Asian American Gas, an energy company that has coal-bed methane concessions in Shanxi province in the north of the country.

　　在山西省拥有煤层气开采特许权的亚美大陆煤层气有限公司(Asian American Gas)总裁邹向东(Steve Zou)表示：“中国的页岩气与美国截然不同，前景并不像美国那样光明。”

　　In the area of coal-bed methane, he says government support will be crucial for the sector.

　　他表示，在煤层气领域，政府的扶持对于整个行业至关重要。

　　“One complication for coal-bed methane is conflict with the coal miners,” he adds.

　　“煤层气开采的一个难题是与煤矿商的冲突。”

　　One boost for the sector was an industry reshuffle in 2009, which ended the monopoly of China United Coalbed Methane.

　　煤层气行业的一次进步是2009年的行业大洗牌。这次行业洗牌终结了中联煤层气公司(China United Coalbed Methane)的垄断局面。

　　While the domestic supply picture may be murky for unconventional gas, the government push in that direction has prompted large Chinese oil companies to boost investment in unconventional gas overseas, partly to perfect the technical expertise needed for its production.

　　也许非常规天然气的国内供应前景仍不明朗，但在政府的大力推动下，中国一些大型石油企业已加大了对海外非常规天然气的投资，部分动因是为了完善自身生产所需的专业技能。

　　Cnooc, the country’s largest offshore producer, inked two deals to develop shale oilfields in the US jointly with Chesapeake Energy late last year and early this year.

　　去年底和今年初，中国最大的离岸油气生产商中海油签署了两项交易，与切萨皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy)联手在美国开发页岩气田。

　　And PetroChina, the listed subsidiary of China’s largest oil and gas producer CNPC, jointly invested $3.2bn together with Shell in an Australian coal-bed methane company last year.

　　除此之外，去年，中国最大的油气生产商——中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)的上市子公司中石油，与壳牌(Shell)共同投资32亿美元，收购了一家澳大利亚煤层气公司。