Years ago, when Industrial & Commercial Bank of China was getting ready to list, it went through its own spring cleaning of its balance sheet. It established Huarong Asset Management, a platform to take all its bad debts, while the Ministry of Finance recapitalised the bank itself.

　　多年前，当中国工商银行(ICBC)准备上市时，对自身的资产负债表进行了一场“春季大扫除”，成立了华融资产管理公司(Huarong Asset Management)，作为接收其全部坏账的平台，同时，中国财政部对该行进行了资本重组。

　　Today, Huarong has reinvented itself as a non-bank financial institution. Its Hong Kong affiliate is busy making loans to those who can not borrow in China directly from ICBC itself, albeit at much higher rates of up to 20 per cent per year, thanks to introductions from the big Chinese bank.

　　如今，华融已经改头换面，成为一家非银行金融机构。在中国无法直接从工行贷到款的人，在这家大行的推介之下，纷纷转向华融在香港的分支机构贷款，不过利率要高出许多，年息最高达20%。

　　Many of Huarong’s borrowers are second-tier property developers who can’t get credit at home as China tries to slow a rise in property prices which threaten social stability.

　　华融的许多贷款者是二线房地产开发商，由于中国正力图平抑已危及社会稳定的房价涨势，这些开发商在国内贷不到款。

　　Usually, these borrowers are able to get the money back across the border into China.

　　通常而言，这些贷款者都能够把钱弄过境，带回内地。

　　So the platform that was originally created to deal with ICBC’s problem loans may well now be creating the next round of problem loans instead.

　　于是，这个原本为了处置工行不良贷款而创建的平台，如今很可能正在制造下一波不良贷款。

　　Such concerns are one reason that bank shares are down 10 per cent this month and trading is at all time lows in terms of price-to-book value, according to GaveKal Dragonomics.

　　GaveKal Dragonomics表示，上述担忧是银行股本月下跌10%、按市净率计处于历史最低位的原因之一。

　　Analysts disagree on the extent to which Chinese regulators have succeeded in putting a stop to the breakneck lending of the past two years. But fears linger that China will careen from the overheated pace of investment of the past two years to the opposite extreme in which companies cannot get any credit. That outcome would have dire consequences for the macro economy.

　　对于中国监管机构在遏制近两年的放贷狂潮上取得了多大成功，分析师们莫衷一是。但人们一直担心，中国可能从最近两年的投资过热转向另一个极端，即企业完全贷不到款。这种结果将给宏观经济造成可怕影响。

　　But lack of credit is not yet the problem. Credit is still flowing in China, although at a slower pace and with a higher cost, thanks to non-banks in Hong Kong such as Huarong.

　　不过，眼下尚未出现信贷短缺问题。在中国，信贷仍在涌动，尽管速度有所放缓，而且拜香港的非银行金融机构（如华融）所赐，成本有所上升。

　　Bank credit in Hong Kong stands at 240 per cent of gross domestic product, according to data from JPMorgan, mostly reflecting the arrival of Chinese borrowers circumventing restrictions at home. In mainland China itself the figure is 120 per cent.

　　根据摩根大通(JPMorgan)的数据，香港的银行信贷占本地生产总值(GDP)比例为240%。这主要反映出许多中国贷款者绕开内地限制措施，前来香港借贷的事实。中国内地的这一比例为120%。

　　The current problem is just how much money is going to the high-end property market, precisely because China depends so heavily on the property market for its economic growth – and how little is going to more productive small and medium enterprises.

　　当前问题在于：有多少资金正流向高端房地产市场？因为中国的经济增长对房地产市场的依赖程度极高。另一方面，流向更具生产力的中小企业的资金到底少到什么程度？

　　A big part of the Chinese miracle has to do with the fact that over this past decade China’s economic expansion was driven by quality growth that came from making things that the rest of the world wanted to buy at a price that no other country could match. That was because Chinese labour was both cheap and productive and because China offered unique economies of scale. Even now, with rising inflation in wages, China still has the advantage of those economies of scale.

　　“中国奇迹”很大程度上以下事实相关：在过去的十年间，中国通过生产世界其他地区都愿意购买、价格低到无人能及的商品，实现了优质的增长，以此推动了中国的经济扩张。个中原因在于，中国劳动力既便宜又高产，同时中国具有规模经济效应。即使是现在，尽管工资日趋上涨，中国依然具备规模经济的优势。

　　By contrast, most of the rest of Asia’s growth came the easy way – by putting up endless apartment towers that swell gross domestic product, but not in a sustainable way, thus paving the way for the Asian financial crisis.

　　相比之下，亚洲其他地区大多是通过便捷的途径实现了增长——即没完没了地盖楼，以此推高GDP，但这不是一种可持续的方式，从而为那场亚洲金融危机埋下了隐患。

　　Yet mainland China has now become too dependent on the easy economic growth that comes from putting up concrete blocks which are then traded like sardines. Beijing today looks much more like Bangkok in 1997 than it looks like it did itself back then.

　　然而，中国内地如今已经变得过度依赖于那种便捷的经济增长途径——堆砌像沙丁鱼罐头一样的混凝土建筑。今日之北京与1997年之曼谷的相像程度，远甚于其与昔日自己相像的程度。

　　At the same time, the government has become much less effective in its attempts to bully the economy to move in the direction it desires. In the mid-1990s – the last time China faced rising prices and inflationary pressures – Zhu Rongji, then-premier, could use administrative measures far more effectively than is possible today because the economy is much more complex today than it was 15 years ago.

　　与此同时，政府已不能像以前那样有效地按照自己意愿来驾驭经济运行方向。上世纪90年代中期，也就是上次中国物价节节攀升、通胀压力极大的时候，时任总理朱镕基能够极为有效地采用行政手段，但放在今天则不太可能，因为如今的中国经济远比15年前复杂得多。

　　Today, all the choices involve difficult trade-offs: local governments need revenue from land sales since that is their main source of income and have a vested interest in keeping prices high. The interest on bank deposits is still negative, leading investors to put their money into property because they do not trust the stock market and there is not much else in which they can invest, as long as capital controls remain in place.

　　如今，摆在眼前的所有选择都涉及到艰难的取舍：地方政府需要卖地收入，因为那是他们的主要收入来源，所以维持高房价是他们的既得利益所在。银行存款利率仍为负值，促使投资者把钱投到房地产市场上，因为他们不信任股市，而只要中国继续施行资本管制，他们除了这两者以外就没什么投资渠道。

　　There is a need for more housing. But it will not be met by the luxury flats that can now be seen in third- and fourth-tier cities where there is not the sort of rising income that could support that kind of high-end market.

　　中国需要更多的住房。但是，如今在三、四线城市都可见到的豪华住宅满足不了这种需求，这些城市的收入增长状况，无法支撑那种高端市场。

　　Today, it is hard to know what the cost of all this actually will actually be.

　　目前，我们无法知道这一切究竟将会造成什么损害。

　　In the official sector, where ICBC itself dwells, rates are low and the cost of capital is, if anything, too cheap. Foreign investors are beginning to look elsewhere for opportunities since asset prices are so inflated, reflecting the fact that credit is still available. In India, by contrast, bank credit as a percentage of GDP is a mere 52 per cent.

　　在正统的放贷领域，即工行所处的这一块，利率很低，资金成本低廉到简直可忽略不计。外国投资者正开始去别处寻找机会，因为这里的资产价格过高，这说明信贷仍然是可以获得的。相比之下，印度银行信贷占GDP的比例仅为52%。

　　Meanwhile, outside the official sector, where Huarong sits, the cost of capital is much higher.

　　另一方面，在正统放贷部门之外，即华融所在的行当，资金成本则要高出许多。

　　But China will not always be awash with cash. It needs to spend more wisely today while capital is still abundant.

　　但是，中国不可能总是有大量资金。当前，趁着资金仍然充裕，中国需要更明智地花钱。