BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, says that when it comes to China, they're no panda bears.

　　全球最大的资产管理公司贝莱德(BlackRock)说，它并没有看空中国。

　　But while the firm isn't off fearfully gnawing on bamboo in the corner, they're not exactly, er, a panda bull either.

　　AP然而，尽管贝莱德谈到中国时并非一副“熊”样，但它也并非完全看多中国。

　　In a new research report titled “Can China's Savers Save the World?” eggheads from BlackRock's Investment Institute and Corporate Credit Group try to deconstruct the reality of risk in China.

　　贝莱德旗下投资研究所和企业信用集团的研究员新近发布了一份题为《中国储户能否拯救世界？》(Can China’s Savers Save the World?)的研究报告，试图解析中国所存在风险的真实情况。

　　The way they see it, there are “panda haters' and 'panda huggers.” Panda haters are the commentators who await China's demise. Panda huggers feel that government policy and liquidity will help avoid a Chinese economic apocalypse.

　　这些研究员认为，目前存在“恨中国者”和“亲中国者”两类人。前者是等待中国崩溃的评论人士，后者则认为中国的政府政策和金融流动性将帮助中国经济避免走向穷途末路。

　　The authors of BlackRock's note seem to fall somewhere in the middle. They believe that China runs the risk that there won't be sufficient funds to meet all of the investment demands of the country's economic actors, all in a battle for funding. “Financial system liquidity not solvency matters.”

　　贝莱德这份报告的作者们所持的观点似乎介于上述二者之间。他们认为中国的风险是，它没有足够资金来满足该国经济活动参与者的全部投资要求，这些参与者目前都在拼命争取资金。报告说，重要的是金融系统的流动性，而不是偿付能力。

　　True, the authors contend, there is rapid growth in China, subsidized interest rates and opacity to China's banking system. Real-estate may be overblown and off-balance-sheet exposures are also on the rise. (Not to mention reverse Chinese mergers and SEC investigations blowing up in recent weeks.)

　　报告作者认为，中国经济正在快速增长，这是不争的事实，但同时中国也存在利率补贴和银行系统不透明的情况。中国房地产市场可能已处于强弩之末，中国资产负债表外的风险敞口也在不断扩大。（更不必说最近几周爆出的中国企业反向并购和美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对此的调查等事。）

　　“While we are sympathetic to much of the logic behind these fears,' the authors write, 'We believe that these concerns float on some flimsy analysis.”

　　报告作者写道：虽然我们对这些担心中国的理由大多表示同情，但我们仍然认为这种担心所依据的一些分析不足为信。

　　The authors credit China's savers, not the Fed, for China's recovery since 2008. And they point to high domestic savings rates as a positive beacon going forward. With high savings and a current-account surplus, China lacks many of the vulnerabilities that toppled Western credit systems in 2008.

　　报告把2008年以来中国的经济复苏归功于中国储户，而不是美联储(Fed)。他们指出，中国国内的高储蓄率是一个积极的灯塔，指引中国经济向前发展。正是由于存在高储蓄率和经常账户盈余，中国才少了很多导致西方信用体系在2008年崩溃的漏洞。

　　BlackRock does harbor some concern that savings growth rates could stall in the next few years and bank deposits could lull. But they see more of a simmering down than a massive financial panic resulting. The firm expects a slowdown in trend growth over the next few years to 7-8% rather than the 8-10% level of recent years, they write.

　　贝莱德其实也有一些担心，它认为中国的储蓄额可能会在未来几年止步不前，银行存款可能也会停止增长。但报告作者认为，中国经济更有可能逐步放缓，而不会出现那种可引发大规模金融恐慌的增长放缓。他们写道，贝莱德预计未来几年中国经济的趋势增长率将为7%至8%，而不会像近几年那样保持在8%至10%的水平。

　　China worry warts or “panda bears” may also miss that much of the growth in China's balance sheet has been quasi-fiscal lending, which is backed by a system that's also seeing a rise in income with a relatively low level of debt, the authors write.

　　报告作者写道，担心中国前景的人或看空中国的人可能不了解，中国增加的大部分债务其实一直属于准财政贷款，这种贷款活动受到某种体系的支持，在这一体系下，中国政府的收入也在增长，债务水平相对较低。

　　Bad debt levels in China will eventually rise, the authors say. “China presents the classic picture of an over-expanding country,” they write. In a worst-case scenario, there could be as much as 7 trillion yuan of bad loans right now, they estimate.

　　报告作者说，中国的坏账水平最终将上升。他们写道：中国是一个典型的扩张过度的国家。据他们估计，若按最坏的情况估计，中国目前可能有至多人民币7万亿元的不良贷款。

　　“But balance sheets are strong, profit growth is subsidized by fixed lending and deposit rates, and economic growth itself should be strong enough to absorb most reasonable estimates of losses without serious challenges to financial system stability,” they write.

　　报告作者写道：中国资产负债表强劲，固定的存贷款利率补贴了利润的增长，经济增长的强劲程度，足以在不威胁金融体系稳定性的前提下，将绝大多数合理范围内的贷款损失消化掉。

　　And in a very non-American fashion, China runs a large surplus, not reliant on foreign funding. China's current account will be more permeable as it moves to internationalize its currency, the authors say, but 'wholesale capital flight is unlikely' given the regulation of Chinese deposits.

　　跟美国很不同的一点是，中国的经常账户有大量盈余，不用依靠外国资金。报告作者说，随着人民币不断国际化，中国经常账户的渗透性将更强，但资本大规模流动的可能性不大，因为中国对存款有着严格监管。