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The deal on the debt ceiling in the U.S. shifts priorities for China's economic policy makers. Reuters
美国达成的债务上限协议将改变中国经济决策人士的任务重点。
Deficit spending seems to be turning into something of a dirty word in Washington, D.C. But growth in the world's largest economy is already dismal. U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of just 1.3% in the second quarter of 2011. Spending cuts from the debt deal, even if delayed, will drag on the recovery in the U.S.
在华盛顿,透支看起来开始成为禁忌字眼。不过,全球最大经济体的增长业已低落。2011年二季度,美国国内生产总值(GDP)年化增速只有1.3%。债务协议带来的支出削减,即使姗姗来迟,也将拖累美国的复苏。
The importance of trade as a driver of China's growth is often overstated. But China still sold $283 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2010, equivalent to 4.7% of GDP. Slower growth in the U.S., second only to the European Union among China's trading partners, won't be a positive.
贸易作为中国增长动力的重要性常常被夸大。不过,2010年,中国仍向美国出口了2,830亿美元的商品,相当于中国GDP的4.7%。美国是中国第二大贸易伙伴,仅次于欧盟,美国增长的放缓不会是个利好因素。
What Uncle Sam takes away in lower growth, though, he will give back in reduced inflation. High oil prices in the first quarter were a contributing factor to China's turbocharged increase in consumer prices. The weak U.S. recovery and further spending cuts ahead should help keep a lid on oil prices. That will reduce China's problem with imported price pressure.
不过,山姆大叔以增速放缓的方式拿走的,他会以通货膨胀回落的方式送回来。一季度的高企油价是中国消费价格飙升的推动因素之一。美国复苏的疲弱以及未来进一步的支出削减,这些应该会有助于遏制油价。这将减少输入型通胀在中国造成的问题。
Meanwhile, the ripples from a weak U.S. economy are already reaching China's shores. The country's purchasing managers' index data for July, released on Monday, points to a stagnant manufacturing sector. The official PMI fell to 50.7 in July from 50.9 in June, hovering a fraction above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The HSBC PMI painted an even bleaker picture, dipping to 49.3 from 50.1, signaling the worst conditions since March 2009.
与此同时,疲弱的美国经济带来的影响已经开始波及中国。周一公布的7月份中国采购经理人指数(PMI)显示出来的是一个停滞的制造业。7月份官方采购经理人指数从6月份的50.9降至50.7,仅比50这个扩张和收缩的临界点高出一点点。汇丰(HSBC)采购经理人指数描绘的局面则更为惨淡,从50.1降到了49.3,显示出2009年3月以来最糟糕的状况。
But if growth is slowing, relief may finally be on the way in the form of a moderation in inflation. The markets have to wait until Aug. 9 for the next set of full inflation data. But the latest weekly report from the Ministry of Commerce provides a heads up on the main source of price pressure─pork. That shows pork prices leveling off in July, with an increase of just 2% over the first three weeks of the month, compared with a 17% increase in June.
不过,如果经济增速开始放缓,通货膨胀可能会有所缓和,最终令人松一口气。市场要等到8月9日才能知晓一整套最新的通货膨胀数据。不过,中国商务部最新周报告显示了物价压力的主要来源──猪肉。报告显示7月份猪肉价格持平,前三周的涨幅只有2%,相比之下,6月份同期涨幅为17%。
A seasonal reduction in demand for pork partly explains the fall in prices. But if the official data confirms the trend toward falling growth and moderating price pressure, it will be more difficult for the inflation hawks to win the argument with China's powerful pro-growth lobby. The consequence of a tighter policy stance in Washington might be a loosening of the reins in Beijing.
猪肉需求的季节性下滑从一定程度上解释了猪肉价格的回落。不过,如果官方数据证实增速放缓和物价压力有所缓和的趋势,在与中国实力强大的保增长派的争论中,抗通胀的支持者则更加难以赢得胜利。华盛顿政策立场收紧的后果可能是北京政策的放宽。
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