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Cracks are starting to appear in China's drive to build low-income housing as concerns rise that a rush to meet government targets is making for shoddy construction, fears made more intense after a train crash last month highlighted the speed with which China carries out many of its infrastructure projects.
中国推动保障房建设的行动正在出现裂缝。人们越来越担心,由于赶着实现政府制订的目标,造成建筑质量低劣。上个月发生的动车事故凸显了中国很多基础设施项目的高速度,也让这种担忧进一步加剧。
The massive state-led investment was supposed to head off social unrest as urban home prices spiraled out of reach of ordinary workers. And many economists forecast that the spending on cheap housing would cushion the impact on the Chinese economy as the government tried to deflate a bubble at the luxury end of the market.
这项由政府主导的大规模投资旨在防止社会动荡,因为城市房价已经上涨到普通劳动者望尘莫及的水平。很多经济学家还预测,在政府力图刺破高端房地产市场泡沫之际,投资保障房将为中国经济起到缓冲作用。
But far from being a magic bullet, the low-income housing push is creating its own problems at a time when a stubbornly high inflation rate is constraining China's ability to spend its way out of another global downturn.
Xinhua/Zuma Press围绕中国保障房建设的担忧正在加剧。图为贵阳市桐木岭的廉租房项目。但保障房不是神弹。由于通货膨胀率居高不下,中国很难再依靠投资冲出新一轮全球衰退,在这个时候,保障房建设本身制造了一些问题。
Premier Wen Jiabao rolled out grand plans in March for 36 million units of public housing as part of China's current five-year plan from 2011 to 2015. But a report by the state-run Xinhua news agency in May raised alarm bells about the plans' progress, saying construction had begun on only 30% of this year's target of 10 million units.
作为中国当前五年规划(2011年至2015年)的一部分,国务院总理温家宝在今年3月推出建设3,600万套保障房的宏伟计划。但官方媒体新华社5月份一篇报道为这一计划的进展敲响了警钟。报道说,今年1,000万套任务当中,已经开工的只有30%。
Since then, the push appears to have speeded up. In July, Premier Wen said construction on more than half of the 10 million targeted units had begun.
自那以来,保障房建设似乎已经加速。温家宝7月份说,这1,000万套中开工的已过半。
In recent weeks, several reports of shoddy workmanship on low-income housing have appeared in state media, raising concerns about safety and suggesting that the flagship project may have to proceed more slowly than expected.
近几周,多篇有关保障房劣质工程的报道见诸官方媒体,引起安全担忧,暗示这个大项目可能需要按低于预期的速度推进。
“If low-income housing construction is blindly devoted to speed, then like the frequent accidents we've seen recently, problems will keep occurring...and potentially even end in tragedy,” said an article in the People's Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, on July 27.
中国共产党机关报《人民日报》7月27日一篇文章说:“如果保障房建设一味追求速度,萝卜快了不洗泥,很容易像最近频频出事的某些工程,建成后问题不断,甚至发生事故、酿成悲剧。”
The article appeared just days after the July 23 high-speed train accident that killed 40 people and injured almost 200 near Wenzhou in eastern China. The accident gave rise to a wave of popular anger and accusations that the new rail network had been developed too quickly and without enough focus on quality and safety.
这篇文章发表之前数日的7月23日,温州附近发生了造成40人死亡、近200人受伤的动车事故。事故引起一片民愤,公众谴责说,新的铁路系统建设过快,对质量和安全重视不足。
The People's Daily article didn't specifically mention the train crash. China has also been plagued by a spate of fatalities on major construction projects this year.
《人民日报》文章没有特别提到这起动车事故。今年中国还发生过多起重大建设项目致人死亡的事故。
A recent statement on the website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development called on officials to “draw hard lessons from the July 23 Wenzhou rail accident, and ensure the safe construction and quality management of low-income housing and public works.”
中国住房和城乡建设部近期在其网站上的一份公告中要求各级官员“深刻吸取“7•23”甬温线动车追尾等事故教训,做好保障性住房和市政工程的建设安全生产和质量管理。”
The concerns surrounding the low-income housing push adds to worries over the outlook for the Chinese economy, and by extension the global economy, which is heavily dependent on China for growth. On Tuesday, China reported unexpectedly high consumer inflation of 6.5% in July, its highest level in over three years, and faster than the 6.4% year-on-year level in June.
笼罩在推动保障房建设上的忧虑使中国经济、甚至全球经济的前景更令人担忧,因为全球经济的增长严重依赖于中国。周二,中国公布7月份消费者通胀指数意外达到6.5%,是三年来的最高水平,高于6月份6.4%的同比增幅。
In 2008, Beijing helped support a faltering global economy by unleashing a wave of bank lending that fueled China's construction industry─and commodity exporters everywhere. Now, with global markets buckling under concerns of a double-dip recession in the U.S. and sovereign-debt woes in Europe, China's high inflation means it can't perform a similar trick without watching prices shoot up further.
2008年,中国实施了一轮刺激建筑业的银行借贷,帮助支撑了衰退中的全球经济以及各大宗商品出口国。现在,全球市场因对美国出现双底衰退及欧洲主权债务问题的担忧而不堪重负,而高通胀意味着中国不能无视物价进一步飙升而再次表演类似戏法。
Finding the cash to fund low-income housing developments is also proving problematic, with local governments cash-strapped from their recent infrastructure building binge, and banks, already constrained in their lending, preferring to give loans to higher-margin projects.
为保障房建设寻找资金也是问题重重,地方政府因近期大量进行基础设施建设而资金紧张,同时,借贷已经受到抑制的银行则更愿意将贷款提供给利润率更高的项目。
On Tuesday, Tan Huajie, the board secretary of China Vanke Co., the country's largest property developer by market share, said that the tighter liquidity in the sector was discouraging investment. Vanke saw first-half profit rise 5.9%, a better performance that many of its peers. Analysts say Vanke's relative success compared with its peers─its first-half profit rose 5.9%─is partly due to its focus on selling small and midsize homes in China's less-developed cities, a market segment only recently affected by government restrictions on lending.
周二,中国万科集团董事会秘书谭华杰说,房地产行业流动性紧缩正在打消投资信心。万科是按市场份额计算中国最大的房地产开发商。万科上半年利润增长5.9%,表现优于许多同行。分析师说,万科相对于其他同行的成功,即上半年利润增长5.9%,部分是由于万科集中在中国欠发达城市销售中小户型房屋。政府最近才开始对这部分市场的借贷进行限制。
Developers are chafing at thin margins for low-income housing. Vanke President Yu Liang said that his company has started construction on more than three million square meters of public housing, but that the profit margin on those developments is only 2%. Analysts say the profit margin for developers on a typical residential development is about 30%.
开发商对保障房的薄利感到头疼。万科总裁郁亮说,公司已经开始建设300多万平米的保障房,但这些房屋的利润率只有2%。分析师说,开发商在一个一般性住宅开发项目上的利润率在30%左右。
Mr. Yu said Vanke would continue to contribute to the public good as long as it didn't hurt shareholders' interests.
郁亮说,只要不损害股东的利益,万科会继续为公共福利做贡献。
Some analysts say that local governments are inflating the numbers of low-income housing they are bringing online by including university dormitories and refurbished older buildings.
一些分析师说,地方政府抬高了网上统计的保障房数字,大学宿舍和翻新的老房子也被包含在内。
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