China’s inflation numbers released Tuesday showed prices increased 6.5 percent in the year to July with food inflation as high as 14.8 percent, causing stock market investors to fret that monetary conditions in China must continue to tighten. Pork prices rose almost 57 percent year on year – pork accounts for a third of the weighting of food prices in China’s CPI.

　　中国周二发布的通胀数据显示，7月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨6.5%，其中食品价格同比增幅高达14.8%。占到中国CPI中食品价格权重三分之一的猪肉价格同比上涨近57%。这让股市投资者担心，中国的货币环境肯定会继续收紧。

　　The silver lining just about visible amid the clouds is that pork will get cheaper as more pigs are rushed to market in coming months. India’s onion prices – similarly a bellwether of food inflation because of their widespread use in curries and lentil dishes – look more of a structural problem, however.

　　重重乌云中出现了一丝亮光：由于未来几个月会有更多的猪肉进入市场，猪肉价格将逐渐回落。相比之下，印度的洋葱价格则更像是一个结构性问题。在印度，由于在咖喱和扁豆菜肴中的广泛应用，洋葱扮演了食品通胀风向标的角色。

　　Onion prices doubled in some parts of western India last week because of the lateness of the monsoon. India’s food inflation was 8 per cent in July. Last month, the central bank raised interest rates by an unexpected 0.5 percentage points because, it said, inflation was unacceptably high. Economists said expectations among households of double-digit inflation had prompted the central bank to surprise the market with a big hike.

　　上周，由于雨季推迟，印度西部部分地区的洋葱价格上涨了一倍。印度7月份食品价格上涨了8%。上月，印度央行意外宣布加息50个基点，央行对此的解释是，通胀水平已经高到不可接受的地步。经济学家表示，印度家庭的通胀预期已高达两位数，这促使央行采取市场意料之外的大幅加息。

　　For both countries, bringing down food inflation is a high priority. But China has the easier challenge. In part, pork prices jumped because the government exacerbated the hog cycle by offering subsidies to pig farmers in 2008. When prices crashed, many farmers got out of the business. But higher prices have prompted them to return and prices are now expected to fall.

　　 对于中印两国而言，降低食品通胀已成为当务之急。但中国面临的挑战要容易对付一些。猪肉价格大涨，在一定程度上归因于中国政府2008年向养猪农户提供补贴，从而导致“猪循环”恶化。在一次猪肉价格暴跌后，许多养猪户洗手不干。但本轮价格上涨已促使他们重操旧业，就目前看来，价格应该会下降。

　　According to Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green, “China could well see another pig glut” in the second half of 2012.

　　渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)表示，到2012年下半年，“中国的猪肉市场很可能会再一次出现供过于求的局面”。

　　India’s problems on the food front are more intractable. Supply chain problems – such as a lack of decent highways and refrigerated containers to move food – mean that roughly 30 per cent of fruit and vegetables rot before they get to market. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural productivity is much lower than China’s, partly because the government has for decades invested less than it should have done in supporting widespread adoption of drip irrigation, for instance, and partly because educational levels of its farmers lag well behind those of China’s.

　　印度的食品问题则更为棘手。该国的供应链问题——例如缺乏像样的高速公路，以及运输食品的冷藏货柜——意味着，大约三成的水果和蔬菜在进入市场之前就已腐烂。此外，印度的农业生产力远远低于中国，部分原因是过去几十年，印度政府在推广滴灌等方面的投资力度没有达到应有水平，同时也是因为该国农民的受教育程度远远低于中国农民。

　　Both countries’ share the problem of surging fertiliser prices as well as a sharp rise in rural wages in the past year or so. China’s has been caused by competition for labour with its factories while India’s has been brought on in part by a government rural job creation scheme that has worked too well, raising competition in the villages for farm labour.

　　两国还面临一个共同的问题：过去一年左右，两国的化肥价格都出现了激增，农村地区工资水平也大幅提升。中国出现这一问题，是源于各工厂对劳动力的争夺，而印度在一定程度上是由于政府的农村就业创造计划进行得太过顺利，导致农村对务农人员的竞争加剧。

　　Given rising incomes in both countries, food inflation may well be something consumers have to get used to. According to the United Nations, the average mainland Chinese citizen ate 49kg of vegetables in 1980; by 2003, that number had risen to 270kg. Some analysts are saying that the Indian government’s work creation scheme in rural India has pushed up demand for vegetables as poor Indians eat better. Given the structural problems in India in terms of both producing and transporting grains and vegetables, food inflation looks set to continue for some time.

　　鉴于两国的收入水平都在不断提升，食品通胀很可能是两国消费者不得不去习惯的一种趋势。根据联合国(UN)的数据，1980年，中国内地公民全年的平均蔬菜消耗量为49公斤，到2003年，这一数字已升至270公斤。一些分析人士表示，印度政府在农村地区的就业创造计划改善了印度穷人的膳食，由此提升了对蔬菜的需求。鉴于印度在生产和运输谷物和蔬菜方面存在结构性问题，印度的食品通胀似乎仍将持续一段时间。

　　China, on the other hand, should vanquish food inflation sooner – if the Chinese government can resist exacerbating the peaks and troughs of the hog cycle.

　　而中国则应该会更快地化解食品通胀问题——如果中国政府能够避免“猪循环”轮回恶化的话。