Developing economies aren't fixing to overtake the U.S. and Europe anytime soon, despite anxieties to the contrary.

　　虽然有人担心发展中国家即将取代美国和欧洲的地位，但这样的情况不会很快发生。

　　A paper presented at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference by Harvard University's Dani Rodrik asserts that challenges faced by economies like China and others means it will be harder for those areas to catch up than many now believe.

　　哈佛大学(Harvard University)的罗德里克(Dani Rodrik)提交给堪萨斯城联邦储备银行(Kansas City Fed)杰克逊霍尔会议的一篇论文认为，中国等经济体面临的挑战意味着它们赶上欧美的难度比一些人目前认为的更大。

　　“Rapid convergence is possible in principle, but unlikely in practice,” Rodrik writes. “Our baseline scenario has to be one in which high growth remains episodic,” and “sustained convergence is likely to remain restricted to a relatively small number of countries,” he said.

　　Reed Saxon/Associated Press2011年8月26日，在怀俄明州杰克逊城举行的经济政策研讨会早间会议开始前，一名工作人员正在日出时分清洁玻璃窗。罗德里克写道，迅速趋同在原则上可行，但在现实中不太可能；我们的基准预测只能是高增长继续呈现为不连续状态；持续趋同可能仍将局限于数量相对较少的几个国家。

　　The academic said much of the rapid rate of growth seen in the developed world is tied in large part to manufacturing. There, productivity rates are key, and he notes that when a nation embarks upon this path, productivity increases are initially fast and steady. “Once an economy gets to produce electric generators, say, or motor vehicles, labor productivity in that industry is placed on an automatic upward trajectory,” and “the trajectory is steeper the lower the starting point,” he wrote.

　　这位学者说，发达国家经历的高增长很大程度上与制造业有关，而生产率是制造业的关键。他指出，当一个国家走上这条道路的时候，生产率的增长最初是快速而稳定的，而且他指出，一旦经济体开始生产发电机或者是汽车之类的东西，这个行业的劳动生产率就进入了一个自动向上的轨迹；起点越低，这个轨迹就越陡。

　　Rodrik's paper was an attempt to counter a growing belief that the malaise affecting the U.S. and Europe is opening the door to dominance by what were once emerging nations. The fears are particularly stark due to the rapid growth of China, the rise of which has fueled trade and financial market imbalances. The paper even refers to a 2010 novel titled “Super Sad True Love Story,” in which the U.S. economy has crashed, and the nation is under the thumb of foreign forces. The Harvard economists sees little chance of that world coming to pass.

　　罗德里克这篇论文是想反驳这样一个观点：越来越多的人相信，美国和欧洲的萎靡不振正在为曾经的新兴市场国家占据主导地位创造条件。中国的崛起加剧了贸易和金融市场的失衡，它的高增长使这种担忧尤其强烈。论文甚至提到2010年发表的小说《悲伤的爱情故事》(Super Sad True Love Story)。在小说中，美国经济已经崩溃，整个国家都听从于外国势力的指使。罗德里克认为，这样一个世界很难成为现实。

　　“Growth in the developing world should depend not on growth in the advanced economies themselves, but on the difference in the productivity levels of the two groups of countries -- in other words, on the convergence gap,” he writes. “The rate at which lagging economies catch up is determined by their ability to absorb ideas and knowledge from the technology frontier.”

　　罗德里克写道，发展中国家的增长应该不是依赖于发达经济体增长率本身，而是依赖于两类国家生产率水平的差别，即“趋同差距”(convergence gap)；落后经济体的追赶速度取决于它们从科技前沿吸收创意和知识的能力。

　　As he sees it, Rodrik sees high rates of emerging market growth as a sign of how much ground there is to cover. “The developing countries” convergence gap stands as wide today as in 1950 (even though it has closed somewhat over the last decade). He adds, “consequently, their potential growth rate is as high as it has ever been since the end of the Second World War.”

　　罗德里克认为，新兴市场的高增长反映的是还有多少路需要赶。他写道，发展中国家今天的趋同差距和1950年时候一样大（虽然过去10年或多或少有所收窄），所以，它们的潜在增长率和第二次世界大战结束以来任何时候一样高。

　　Some of the paper also dealt with how reforms in developing nations have aided their economic development. Rodrik said these “better governed” lands have largely helped shore themselves up against the forces which in the past have led them to face unexpected shocks that disrupted their growth.

　　论文的部分内容还谈到发展中国家的改革是怎样为它们的经济发展提供了帮助。罗德里克说，这些“治理更好”的国家基本上已经挡住了过去曾让它们面临意外冲击、扰乱其经济增长的力量。

　　Rodrik also said if China does what nations like the U.S. want and boost domestic growth and rely less on exports, growth there could slow. “If what matters for China's growth is ultimately the structure of production, a shift in the composition of demand may do real harm to the economy's growth,” the researcher wrote. “A reorientation towards services and domestic consumption would reduce the demand for its industrial products and blunt the forces of convergence described earlier,” he said.

　　罗德里克还说，如果中国按照美国等国家的愿望提振国内增长、减轻对出口的依赖，其增长速度则有可能放缓。他写道，如果说最终关系到中国增长速度的是生产结构，那么需求结构的变化可能会对这个经济体的增长速度造成实实在在的伤害；如果朝着服务和国内消费重新调整，则会降低其工业产品的需求，减弱前述趋同力量。