China does not quite fit the classic definition of stagflation: a persistent combination of high inflation with sub-par growth. But prices were still rising in July and growth, if still firm, appears to be fading. A regular reading of activity levels by purchasing managers within the service sector, published by HSBC/Markit on Monday, recorded a series-record low of 50.6 for the month of August. That signals no more than a marginal expansion. Six of the 13 official PMI series tracked by China’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing have dipped below 50, indicating contraction. Even in the world preoccupied by Europe, this should raise concern.

　　严格说来，中国的情况并不符合“滞胀”的经典定义：通胀高企，经济增长不振，两者长期结合存在。但是，价格在7月份仍有上涨，而经济增长即便说仍算得上坚挺，其势头似乎也在减弱。汇丰(HSBC)/Markit周一发表的报告显示，8月份中国服务业采购经理指数(PMI)降至50.6这一调查历史最低值。这个水平说明业务活动充其量仅出现微弱扩张。在中国物流与采购联合会编制的13个官方PMI数据系列中，有6个已降至50以下，说明业务活动出现收缩。即便当今世界对欧洲的危机念念不忘，这也应当引发忧虑。

　　China’s policymakers are in a bind. Note that August was the first month this year that was free of increases in either the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates. As the US and Europe once more struggle for economic traction, some factions within the politburo would like to join them in an extended pause in monetary tightening, or even to ease a little. But headline consumer price inflation, politically sensitive in China, will not allow it. July’s CPI was almost unchanged at a three-year high of 6.5 per cent. Local media reports suggest not much change in August’s reading, to be reported this Friday.

　　中国的政策制定者们进退两难。值得注意的是，8月是今年首个中国官方既没有上调银行存款准备金率又没有上调利率的月份。随着美欧再一次竭力保持经济增长，中共中央政治局内部某些派别希望像西方一样，在较长时间内暂停收紧货币政策，或者甚至稍微放松一下政策。但是，在中国具有政治敏感性的整体消费价格指数(CPI)不容许这么做。7月的CPI几乎没有变化，仍保持在6.5%的三年高位。中国媒体报道暗示，定于本周五报告的8月CPI将不会有太大变化。

　　The good news is that base effects, if nothing else, will help to tame CPI in the coming months. A rising currency, too, works to take the edge off import prices: August’s 10 per cent annualised rate of gain against the dollar was the biggest since last September. But for now, the tensions are obvious. Writing last week in the policy periodical of the Chinese Communist party, Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed that price stability is the “primary task”, while claiming that signs of slower growth are “at a reasonable level”. Maybe they are. But balancing between jobs and prices has rarely seemed so complex.

　　好消息是，就算没有其它手段管用的话，基数效应也将在未来几个月帮助遏制CPI。人民币汇率上升也有利于缓解进口价格上涨的影响：8月份，人民币兑美元汇率出现10%的年化上涨，这是自去年9月以来的最大涨幅。但就目前而言，紧张形势仍一目了然。中国总理温家宝上周在中共政策刊物《求是》撰文重申，稳定物价总水平仍然是宏观调控的“首要任务”。温家宝同时称，经济增速放缓的各种迹象“处在合理水平”。这话也许没错。但是，在创造就业与稳定价格之间寻找平衡的任务，看上去很少像现在这样复杂。