The filibuster procedure in the US Senate has been used over many years to prevent decisions on many sensible matters. Next week, however, members of the upper legislative house may override the filibuster to support a deeply dangerous idea.

　　多年来，美国参议院的“冗长辩论”(filibuster)程序被用于阻止在很多敏感事情上的决定。然而，下周参议院可能越过这一程序，来支持一个极为危险的想法。

　　The Senate’s Democratic leadership has caved in to the demagogues and scheduled a vote on legislation designed to punish China for manipulating its currency, various incarnations of which have been floating around Capitol Hill for years.

　　参议院的民主党领导人已经向煽动者屈服，并安排就一项旨在惩罚中国操纵汇率的法案举行投票。多年来，不同形式的此类法案在国会山此起彼伏。

　　A small mercy is that successive iterations of the legislation have become progressively less extreme. The earliest – an across-the-board tariff on all Chinese imports – has been dropped. Now the commerce department would be required to include assessments of currency undervaluation in calculating “countervailing duties” against allegedly subsidised imports.

　　一个小小的幸运之处在于，对该法案的反复重提已逐渐不那么极端。最早的法案（要求对所有中国进口商品全盘征收关税）已被放弃。如今，法案要求美国商务部在对被指得到补贴的进口计算“反补贴税”时，纳入对汇率低估的评估。

　　Nonetheless, the bill remains a bad idea. No doubt Chinese currency manipulation has contributed at least partly to global imbalances. But the calculation of exchange rate misalignments is a highly uncertain business, and incorporating them into trade policy will involve endless debates – and most likely perpetual World Trade Organisation litigation – about the methodology of macroeconometric modelling.

　　不过，此项法案仍然是一个坏主意。毫无疑问，至少在一定程度上，中国的汇率操纵是导致全球失衡的背后推手。但计算汇率偏差是一件非常不确定的事情，将其纳入贸易政策，会带来围绕宏观经济计量模型方法无休止的争论，很有可能出现没完没了的世界贸易组织(WTO)诉讼。

　　Moreover, such actions are likely to escalate, taking the “currency wars” into a new and highly litigious theatre of battle. Brazil, whose problems with an appreciating currency would have been better addressed by tightening fiscal policy rather than complaining about other countries, has even suggested rewriting WTO law to address exchange rate issues.

　　此外，此类行动有可能升级，将“汇率战”带入纷纷扰扰的新战场。巴西甚至建议通过修改WTO规则来解决汇率问题，而实际上，通过收紧财政政策、而不是指责其他国家，能够更好地解决该国的汇率升值问题。

　　It is not surprising that Democrats are lining up to support the bill – the bulk of the congressional party long ago abandoned free trade. More disappointing is that Barack Obama’s White House has declined to disavow the bill.

　　民主党纷纷支持这项法案并不奇怪，该党派在很久以前就抛弃了自由贸易。更为令人失望的,是巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)领导下的白宫(White House)拒绝否决该法案。

　　Equally disturbing is the likelihood that the Republicans will join them in this pre-election year. Mitt Romney, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has adopted a China-baiting platform, further marginalising free-trade opinion inside the party.

　　同样令人不安的是，在明年就会举行大选的情况下，共和党有可能加入他们的行列。领先的共和党总统候选人米特?罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)已采取了一套指责中国的竞选纲领，从而在共和党内进一步把自由贸易的观点边缘化。

　　Those concerned with the future of the global trading system should oppose this bill. Currency misalignment is a problem, but clumsy and most likely WTO-illegal legislation is not the way to deal with it – especially when the world is still struggling to maintain confidence in the face of the global financial crisis.

　　关心全球贸易体系未来的人们，应该反对这项法案。汇率偏差是一个问题，但愚蠢、且很可能违反WTO规则的法案并非解决之道——尤其是在面临全球金融危机、世界仍在为保持信心而苦苦挣扎的当下。