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Physical indicators in the Asian copper market are pointing to the strongest demand for the metal in more than a year, as Chinese traders see the 30 percent fall in prices since August as a buying opportunity.
亚洲铜市的实物指标表明,铜需求达到了一年多来最强劲的水平,原因是中国交易商认为,铜价自8月以来已下跌30%,目前正是买入良机。
London Metal Exchange warehouses are set to make their largest deliveries of copper since early 2009, and the price of physical copper in China, measured by its premium above LME prices, has jumped to the highest since July 2010. LME
伦敦金属交易所(LME)旗下仓库即将交割的铜达到2009年初以来最高水平。在中国,实物铜的价格(按与LME价格的溢价衡量)猛涨至2010年7月以来的最高水平。
The buying comes after the price of copper for delivery in three months on the LME tumbled to a 14-month low of $6,635 a tonne last week, down by almost a third since the start of August.
3个月期铜上周暴跌至每吨6635美元的14个月低点,自8月初算起累计下跌近三分之一。
Analysts said Chinese consumers, who account for almost 40 percent of global copper demand, had run down their inventories earlier this year when prices were trading at record levels above $9,000. “
分析师称,今年早些时候,当价格在9000美元以上的历史高位运行时,中国用户纷纷削减了铜库存。中国的铜需求占全球总量的将近40%。
“You can only destock once, so even though end-use consumption appears to be weakening, consumers need to buy more material than earlier this year and are now turning back to the import market,” said Jim Lennon, head of commodities research at Macquarie.
你一度只能减少库存,所以,即使目前终端消费似乎在减少,与今年早些时候相比,用户也需要购买更多的材料,所以他们正在重返进口市场。”麦格理(Macquarie)大宗商品研究部门主管吉姆?列农(Jim Lennon)表示。
Nonetheless, Mr Lennon added that prices were likely to be driven by concerns over the eurozone debt crisis in the short term. On Tuesday, copper fell 3 percent to $7,250.25 a tonne.
不过列农同时表示,短期内,铜价可能受到投资者担忧欧元区债务危机因素的左右。周二铜价下跌了3%,至每吨7250.25美元。
Traders have requested delivery of 60,000 tonnes of copper from the LME in recent weeks – the highest level of “cancelled warrants” since 2009 – with the majority planned in Asian warehouses.
近几周内,交易商已要求从LME交割6万吨铜,“注销仓单”(cancelled warrants)达到2009年以来的最高水平,其中大部分将发生在亚洲仓库。
At the same time, the premium paid for copper in China over the LME price – an indication of the tightness in the physical market – has risen to $120-$150 a tonne, according to CRU, a consultancy, the highest since July 2010. Earlier this year, Chinese premiums traded below $50.
与此同时,根据CRU咨询公司的数据,在中国购买铜所支付的相对于LME铜价的溢价升至每吨120-150美元,为2010年7月以来最高水平。今年早些时候,中国溢价低于50美元。
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