China has for the first time revealed the estimated size of its copper inventories, shedding light on one of the commodity market’s biggest mysteries.

　　中国首次披露其铜库存的估计规模，由此揭开了大宗市场最大谜团之一的面纱。

　　Chinese copper inventories stood at 1.9m tonnes at the end of 2010, more than the US consumes in a year, according to estimates by the state-backed China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association. The estimate is significantly higher than the 1.0m-1.5m tonnes range that foreign executives have assumed in the past.

　　根据政府支持的中国有色金属工业协会(CNIA)的估算，2010年底，中国铜库存为190万吨，超过美国一年的消费量。这一估算远远高于外国高管此前猜想的100万至150万吨。

　　The estimates, which were announced at a recent meeting of the International Copper Study Group but have not been made public, imply that real Chinese copper demand may have been lower than thought in recent years.

　　上述估算数据是最近在国际铜业研究组织(ICSG)的一次会议上宣布的，但尚未对外公布。这些数据意味着，近年中国的实际铜需求可能低于人们此前所认为的水平。

　　Movements in Chinese inventories are one of the most important price drivers for the global copper market. A buying spree in early 2009 by the country, which now accounts for about 40 per cent of global copper demand, helped trigger a price rally from the lows of the financial crisis to new records this year above $10,000 a tonne.

　　中国库存的动向，是全球铜市场最重要的价格驱动因素之一。目前中国约占全球铜需求的40%。中国方面在2009年早期的大举买入，帮助引发了一轮价格涨势，使得铜价从金融危机期间的低点，反弹至今年每吨逾1万美元的新高。

　　The new stock estimates were presented at the last meeting of the ICSG, a group representing the governments of large copper-producing countries and consumers, in Lisbon at the end of September, according to several people who attended.

　　国际铜业研究组织代表大型产铜国和消费国政府。据多名在场的人士表示，上述中国铜库存估算数据，是在该组织9月底在葡萄牙里斯本举行的最近一次会议上提出来的。

　　According to people who were present at the ICSG meeting, the CNIA estimated that Chinese copper stocks, not including those kept at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses stood, at 1.768m tonnes at the end of 2010, up from 1.218m in 2009 and 282,000 in 2008. SHFE inventories were 132,000 tonnes in 2010, putting China’s total stocks at 1.9m tonnes.

　　与会人士称，中国有色金属工业协会估计，不包括在上海期货交易所(SHFE)仓库的库存，中国2010年底的铜库为176.8万吨，高于2009年的121.8万吨和2008年的28.2万吨。上海期货交易所的库存在2010年达到13.2万吨，使中国的铜库存总规模达到190万吨。

　　Other than exchange stocks, copper is held as working inventory by China’s manufacturing sector as well as by merchants, investors and the State Reserve Bureau, Beijing’s stockpiling agency. However, analysts, investors and traders are sceptical, noting that the world’s largest copper importer and consumer has an interest in inflating the size of its stockpiles, which could push prices down. The CNIA declined to comment.

　　除了期货交易所的库存外，中国的铜库存都是作为即时储备，保存单位包括中国的制造业企业、商家、投资者，以及国家物资储备局(State Reserve Bureau)。不过，分析师、投资者和交易员们纷纷表示怀疑，他们指出，对全球最大的铜进口国和消费国来说，夸大库存是符合其利益的，因为这有可能压低铜价。中国有色金属工业协会拒绝置评。

　　“Whatever the Chinese say that stocks are, in the end they still need copper,” said George Cheveley, metals and mining portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management.

　　“无论中国方面说自己有多少库存，到头来他们还是需要铜，”天达资产管理公司(Investec Asset Management)金属及矿业投资组合经理乔治?切维利(George Cheveley)表示。

　　The ICSG has yet to incorporate the new estimates into its supply and demand data. “The decision by the members was to defer using the new stock data pending more detailed confirmation of its source and content,” said Daniel Edelstein, chair of the ICSG’s statistical committee.

　　国际铜业研究组织尚未将新的估算值纳入其供需数据。“成员国决定推迟采用新的库存数据，以便对其来源和内容进行更为详尽的核实，”该组织统计委员会主席丹尼尔·埃德尔斯坦(Daniel Edelstein)表示。

　　Beijing releases only sketchy information about its supply, demand and inventories, creating a statistical vacuum that is contributing to price volatility.

　　中国对本国的供应、需求和库存情况仅发布零碎的信息，由此形成了一个统计真空，从而加剧了价格波动。